The Senior Citizens League increased its prediction for Social Security’s Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 to 2.5%, up from 2.4%. It is the fourth consecutive month the League has raised its calculation.

Inflation in the U.S. hit a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and was last measured by the Consumer Price Index as 2.4% in May. The Cleveland Fed is forecasting it will tick up to 2.62% in June.

The Social Security COLA was 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2024. Following the inflation spike in the U.S., the Social Security Administration increased the COLA to 8.7% in 2023 and 5.9% in 2022.

The 8.7% Cost of Living Adjustment for 2023 was the largest increase since 1981, when it was elevated to 11.2% due to severe inflation that peaked at 13.3% in 1979. As well, the 5.9% COLA for 2022 was the highest since 1982, when the adjustment was 7.4%.

“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” says Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton. “TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”

On Wednesday, the Treasury Department said the U.S. Social Security and Medicare programs for seniors will both run short of funds to pay full benefits in 2033, three years sooner than last year's estimate for the Medicare Hospital Insurance Fund.