A steep decline in the U.S. population could shave more than $100 billion off the economy, with housing, healthcare, and services poised to feel the biggest impact, Barron’s reports.

U.S. population growth slowed to just 0.4% in 2025, the weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Census Bureau. The primary driver: a sharp fall in net international migration.

“While this slowdown is driven by a complex mix of lower birth rates and a sharp decline in international migration, the economic implications are immediate and tangible,” according to Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN), an economic modeling firm.

Broader demographic research shows the U.S. fertility rate has been below the replacement level for years and contributes to long-term slower growth, but according to IMPLAN, the main driver for a drop in America's population growth is fewer immigrants.

Between July 2024 and June 2025, about 1.3 million net new immigrants became U.S. residents — less than half the 2.7 million recorded during the same period a year earlier.

That represents a drop of roughly one million people in a single year, and looking ahead, the slowdown could deepen.

Oxford Economics recently cut its 2026 net immigration forecast to just 160,000, down from 350,000, citing expanded restrictions on legal migration.

The Trump administration’s suspension of visa processing for nationals of 75 countries is expected to significantly reduce inflows, especially since nearly half of immigrant visas issued abroad in 2024 came from those nations.

IMPLAN estimates that the slowdown created a “growth gap” of 1.4 million fewer people compared with the prior year’s pace.

That missing population translates into $86.2 billion less in household spending and $103.9 billion in forgone gross domestic product growth, IMPLAN found.

The firm also estimates 741,500 more jobs would have been supported if immigration and population growth had held steady.

While the loss is modest relative to the $31 trillion U.S. economy, the effects are expected to be concentrated in key sectors.

“Population growth is the primary engine for residential construction and healthcare demand,” IMPLAN noted.

Fewer new residents mean less demand for apartments, homes, and new housing developments — potentially cooling construction activity in fast-growing states.

Healthcare systems could also see slower growth in patient volumes, particularly in areas that have relied on immigration-driven population gains.

States such as California, Texas, and New York are projected to face some of the largest economic effects. California alone could see $13.4 billion in forgone gross domestic product and more than 86,000 fewer jobs, according to IMPLAN estimates.

Beyond housing and healthcare, the service sector — especially restaurants and dining — may also face meaningful pressure.

Immigrants contribute to the economy both as workers and consumers. A slowdown reduces demand for everyday spending on food, entertainment, and personal services while also shrinking the labor pool in industries that heavily rely on immigrant workers.

Restaurants and hospitality businesses, which operate on thin margins, could see both softer customer traffic

Not all economists agree on the scale of the damage, however.

Research from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute suggests the impact may be more modest, estimating reduced migration could lower consumer spending by $60 billion to $110 billion combined across 2025 and 2026.

Still, IMPLAN argues the economic effects are already visible.

With net immigration potentially falling to just 160,000 in 2026 — a fraction of recent levels — the slowdown marks a significant shift in a country where population growth has long powered housing demand, healthcare expansion, and service-sector employment.

In short, the population decline means fewer consumers, less demand, and lower spending.