Most political sages in New York believed that if there was a record voter turnout on Election Day (2 million plus), Andrew Cuomo would win the race for mayor.
However, while the ballot box totals broke records going back to 1969 with over 2.3 million people voting, the Socialist candidate, Zohran Mamdani, still managed to beat Cuomo, 50% to 41%.
How did Mamdani, a radical anti-Israel and anti-police candidate, manage to beat Cuomo in four out of five boroughs?
The short answer: a new political demographic.
New York is no longer the city Andrew Cuomo, and I grew up in.
Back in 1977, for example, when I was 25 and Cuomo was 19, two centrist Democrats, Ed Koch and Mario Cuomo, battled it out in neighborhoods that were populated by working class ethnics — predominately Poles, Jews, Irish, Italians, and Puerto Ricans.
Both candidates pledged to restore fiscal, economic, and social sanity in a city that was wrecked by the failed Great Society tax and spend polices of the 1960s and 1970s.
The only position that separated them was the death penalty — Koch for, Cuomo against.
Koch won and served three terms and Cuomo went on to be elected lieutenant-governor in 1978 and governor in 1982.
Those older ethnic groups, who also supported Nixon and Reagan in the 1970s and 1980s, have gone on to their heavenly reward or to Florida.
And the neighborhoods they left are populated by new ethnic voters — Hispanics from Central and South America, Southern Asians, and Middle Easterners.
There is also a large contingent of young white college-educated voters who have rejected the center-right views of their parents and grandparents.
They have incredible self-confidence that borders on arrogance and incredible expectations.
They believe they are entitled to instant status, security, all the material comforts and lots of "free" stuff from the government.
All those voters bought into Mandani's socialist vision and formed a new coalition that put him over the top on Election Day.
Here’s how the members of this new coalition voted:
Sixty-eight percent of white voters between the age of 18 and 40 cast their ballot for Mamdani. For white voters over 45, it dropped to about 35%.
Mamdani received the support of 86% of young Hispanics and 83% of young Blacks.
Overall, he garnered 78% of the votes of those under 29. Meanwhile, 56% of voters over 65 went with Cuomo.
As for college graduates: 54% of white women, 53% of white males, and 62% of non-whites backed Mandani.
As for the overeducated: 57% of those with advanced degrees favored the Socialist.
Cuomo carried nearly 50% of voters with a high school education or less and the Republican, Curtis Sliwa received 11%.
As for political matters, 83% of Mandani’s supporters considered themselves very liberal and 63% somewhat liberal.
Fifty-six percent of moderates and 71% of conservatives sided with Cuomo.
Cuomo was also supported by 53% of Catholic and 63% of Jews.
Oddly, 33% of the Jewish vote went for Mamdani.
Believe it or not, 55% of voters who earn between $100,000 and $200,000 voted for Mamdani as did 43% with incomes over $200,000.
Here are some other exit polling findings:
—85% of voters who have lived in the city for less than five years voted for Mamdani.
—50% of voters born in the city voted for Cuomo.
—65% of newly registered voted for Mamdani.
—55% of women with no children voted for Mamdani.
—53% of women with children voted for Cuomo.
—59% of apartment renters voted for Mamdani.
—53% of homeowners voted for Cuomo.
—25% of voters consider themselves Democratic Socialists.
Concerning the major issues:
—Those who consider immigration the top issue, 59% cast their votes for Cuomo.
—Those who consider crime the top issue, 67% cast their votes for Cuomo.
—Those who consider cost of living, 66% cast their votes for Mamdani.
—Those who support higher taxes, 86% cast their votes for Mamdani.
And finally, Mamdani won despite 50% of voters saying they found his policies unrealistic and 50% saying they found Cuomo’s policies realistic.
Mamdani has every right to savor his victory.
But my guess is that it will not take very long after he is sworn into office in January, before his groupies learn that the Socialist vision that looked good on paper never works in practice.
George J. Marlin, a former executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, is the author of "The American Catholic Voter: Two Hundred Years of Political Impact," and "Christian Persecutions in the Middle East: A 21st Century Tragedy." Read George J. Marlin's Reports — More Here.
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