Nothing to See Here - The Stock Market Bubble Scam

A Stock Market Bubble Only Exists If the S&P 500 Hits 10,000 This Year.

As a wealth management law professor at a top ranked law school, I can say that financial bubbles are rarely defined by price levels alone.

They are defined by speed, leverage, fragility, and narrative distortion—particularly when perception becomes detached from underlying fundamentals.

By that standard, the U.S. stock market is not in a bubble unless the S&P 500 accelerates to 10,000 within a single calendar year.

If the index instead advances toward 10,000 over the next 24 to 36 months, the move is better understood as a rational market valuation of assets, profits, productivity, safety, and global sales.

As such, any wild “Bubble Prediction” articles by Bloomberg, Money, Time, USA Today, Motley Fool, and Yahoo Finance etc. all seem a bit extreme and sound like baseless fear-mongering. ^[i]

This is not 1999, and the MAGA/FANG+ related stocks are super-rich already. ^[ii]

It is easy to speculate about a bubble if you do not have a command over the facts, law, and innovation.

To begin with, after analyzing the new tax law, Trump’s new tax policies are 100% conducive to increasing wages and profits for workers and small companies.

The OBBA’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act small-business provisions are supercharged and designed to accelerate growth by improving cash flow and reducing after-tax costs, encouraging entrepreneurs to invest and expand rather than delay decisions.

Through full expensing and enhanced Section 179 deductions, expanded pass-through income relief, broader deductibility of insurance, R&D, software and AI tools, increased interest and benefit deductions, and simplified accounting rules, the law lowers friction across hiring, capital investment, and innovation.

By treating technology, risk management, and workforce development as core operating necessities, the OBBA promotes faster capital formation and stronger business balance sheets—ultimately supporting broader economic and earnings growth.

The OBBA lets you: buy assets now. hire earlier. insure risk properly, invest in technology and AI, move money faster, and reduce dead capital.

As a huge bonus for workers and families, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (effective for tax years 2025 through 2029), the federal deduction limit for state and local taxes (SALT) rises from the old $10,000 cap to up to $40,000 for most taxpayers who itemize.

This particularly helps families and union workers in expensive Democrat blue states. ^[iii] ^[iv] ^[v]

Ironically, the more credible bubble today may not be in equities—but in media geography and perception , concentrated disproportionately in New York, London, and Paris.

1. The United States Remains the World’s Lowest Sovereign-Risk Investment Market

In an era of geopolitical volatility, capital flows toward jurisdictions with strong property rights, transparent legal systems, currency stability, and deep capital markets.

The United States remains unmatched on all four dimensions. ^[vi]

As risk rises globally, capital does not retreat—it reallocates.

And overwhelmingly, it reallocates to U.S. equities. This structural demand places persistent upward pressure on valuations without speculative leverage or mania. ^[vii]

2. The S&P 500 and Other USA Indexes such as the Dow Jones are a Global Revenue Engine Serving 7.5 Billion Non-U.S. Consumers

The S&P 500 is not a domestic index. It is a global sales platform.

Roughly half of its revenues already originate outside the United States, with exposure expanding across Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

With 7.5 billion consumers beyond U.S. borders, American firms enjoy unparalleled scalability.

Software, platforms, healthcare, industrials, and consumer brands can expand globally at marginal cost—supporting long-duration earnings growth that justifies higher index levels over time. ^[viii]

3. Fuel Costs Have Been Cut in Half Under Trump —Lowering Inflation and Export Costs

KA BOOM!, I gassed up my car this morning for $1.79 a gallon at Shell which is 1/3rd the cost of what you paid in California and New York last year or about € 0.45 per liter in European terms.

Energy costs sit beneath every supply chain. A sharp reduction in fuel prices lowers transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and export expenses while simultaneously reducing headline inflation.

With the renegotiation with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and now Venezuela, the fuel prices may stay low for a while to the great benefit of companies such as: UPS, Airlines, Amazon, Cruise Lines and even school districts etc. ^[ix]

This is not a temporary tailwind; it is a structural margin expansion across industries.

Historically, prolonged periods of declining energy costs coincide with lower food prices and sustained equity growth—not speculative collapse.

4. Interest Rates Are Already Low Globally—and the U.S. Will Converge

Many advanced economies already operate with mortgage rates near 3.5% or lower.

The United States, having faced a sharper inflation cycle, remains on a delayed but converging path.

As inflation normalizes, U.S. mortgage rates are likely to trend downward over the next 12–16 months, freeing household cash flow, stimulating housing activity, and reinforcing consumer balance sheets—key drivers of economic stability. ^[x]

For those who avail themselves of the Macro view of the global economy, the dirty secret is that many large S&P and USA Companies can borrow money much cheaper offshore which gives them a competitive edge in growth offshore and domestically.

5. AI Cannot Fail Systemically Because It Is Owned by Existing Giants

Roughly 90% of commercially meaningful AI platforms, infrastructure, and applications are owned or controlled by FANG-related companies or billionaire-backed enterprises.

This ownership structure fundamentally alters the risk profile of artificial intelligence.

AI is not a standalone speculative sector. It is an extension of existing, profitable product lines , including:

Search and information retrieval
Social and engagement platforms
Enterprise research and analytics
Creative and productivity software
Sales, advertising, and marketing automation

These firms already generate substantial free cash flow.

AI does not need to “prove itself someday”; it is already embedded in monetized ecosystems with global distribution.

As a result, AI represents continuity and leverage of scale , not fragility. ^[xi]

6. AI Is Producing Measurable Productivity Gains

Unlike prior technology cycles driven by promise, AI is delivering quantifiable efficiency improvements today:

Lower labor and processing costs
Faster innovation cycles
Improved logistics and forecasting
Higher creative output per worker
Better customer targeting and pricing

Productivity gains justify valuation expansion without speculative distortion.

This is a re-rating of economic capacity, not exuberance.

7. Lower Food and Fuel Costs Are Reigniting Consumer Spending

When essential costs decline, consumers spend. Stabilized food and fuel prices act as a broad-based tax cut, increasing discretionary income across income brackets.

Retail, travel, services, entertainment, and digital commerce all benefit. This resurgence in spending is grounded in improved affordability, not excessive leverage.

8. Falling Credit Card and Margin Rates Will Increase Money Velocity

Credit card interest rates near 25% suppress economic circulation. A decline toward 15% materially improves liquidity, debt servicing capacity, and consumer confidence.

Lower rates increase the velocity of money, allowing spending to expand without increasing systemic financial risk—supporting earnings growth across consumer-facing sectors.

Margin lending rates have come down from 10% to 6.5% for investors and may go lower in July. This boosts liquidity and investing.

9. Businesses Are Shopping Jurisdictions and Adapting to Risk—Not Collapsing Under It

While crime and disorder have increased in certain urban cores, businesses are responding rationally: relocating, downsizing physical footprints, embracing hybrid models, locating better tax jurisdictions, and expanding online distribution.

These adjustments lower fixed costs, increase resilience, and improve margins.

Some businesses hire experts to identify locations where there will be the best laws for business and the least frivolous lawsuits and lower criminal activity.

Adaptation is not a sign of economic weakness; it is evidence of flexibility and efficiency.

11. Mitigation of Costs Reduces Systemic Risk — Immigration

Reduced fraudulent or unmanaged immigration lowers long-term public expenditures.

Estimated savings of $10–20 trillion over 40 years reduce future debt issuance and fiscal strain.

Markets price long-term risk. Improved sovereign balance sheets support higher equity valuations today.

12. Business and Family Tax Relief Accelerates Asset Formation

The OBBA’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act has significant tax relief for business taxes and SALT taxes.

Tax relief for families and small and medium-sized enterprises encourages earlier and larger investments in equipment, inventory, insurance, technology, and hiring and essentially allows businesses to invest in themselves and retain more earnings which boosts business value and assets on the balance sheets.

Small businesses drive employment and supply chains. Their capital formation feeds directly into S&P 500 earnings growth.

13. Perspective - The Real Bubble May Be Media Geography

A critical but under-discussed factor in today’s market pessimism is geographic bias of media centers.

Much of the financial and political commentary shaping investor sentiment emanates from New York, London, Chicago, and Paris —cities currently struggling with underpaid journalists, weak governance, crime, housing affordability, poor public schools, weak healthcare systems, infrastructure decay, and low public confidence. ^[xii]

This media bias has created a perception bubble, where commentators extrapolate local dysfunction into national or global decline.

Yet across the United States and many parts of the world, countless cities and regions are booming and offer:

Strong public and private schools
Safe streets and low crime neighborhoods
Affordable rents and housing
Professional policing and peace officers
High-quality healthcare
Functional infrastructure and logistics

Economic activity is not collapsing; it is diversifying on a global level.

Capital and talent are flowing toward well-governed regions, not disappearing.

Historically, great cities decline when ideology replaces quality management—and they recover when business-minded and family-minded leadership returns.

New York, London, LA, Chicago, and Paris are not doomed, but they will not recover through rhetoric alone.

Media folks in these key cities are getting laid off by the thousands and they only know what they see, and for the time being, it is a pessimistic outlook for many. ^[xiii]

They will recover when leaders focus on:

Public safety
Capital investment
Accountability
Cost control
Benefits for Working Families
Incentives for enterprise

Until then, commentary emanating from these cities risks mistaking local decay for global collapse .

14. Unions have now Become a Conservative Voice after 100 years.

While unions typically dealt with getting better deals from the original 5 stakeholders such as: Owners, Shareholders, Suppliers, the Community, and customers, the definition of community has expanded over the last 80 years. Now, the #1 threat to a union is governmental oppression with bad law and policy.

Therefore, a Union’s key job today is to negotiate with city, state and federal government bureaucrats for fair treatment of workers by assisting with reasonable and competitive: health care costs, taxes, fees, housing costs, insurance costs, regulations, safety, lower crime and so forth.

In sum, if the local, state, county, and city government does not make things reasonably friendly for workers and business, unions and workers will take their business and people elsewhere. ^[xiv]

15. With Less War and Less Conflicts — Global Trade Will Boom

President Donald Trump reshaped global diplomacy by de-escalating and helping resolve a wide range of major international conflicts—often cited as six to twelve flashpoints—through direct leader-to-leader engagement, economic leverage, and a doctrine that prioritized deterrence over endless intervention.

By pressuring adversaries toward negotiation, reinforcing alliance burden-sharing, and cutting off incentives for proxy warfare, his approach reduced active hostilities and froze several long-running disputes that had fueled regional instability.

With fewer wars and fewer conflicts, the risk premium on global commerce falls: shipping lanes stay open, energy supplies stabilize, capital flows increase, and businesses invest with confidence.

In that environment of relative peace, global trade naturally accelerates, supply chains normalize, and growth expands—benefiting workers, consumers, and emerging markets alike while US stock markets have less volatility and stable global growth. ^[xv]

16. Trump Lowered Tariffs to Half of the World’s Population.

Because of Trump’s savvy negotiations, the USA now has lower tariffs to export goods to half of the world including: India, China, Indonesia, the European Union, and other Arab States.

These lower tariffs allow Americans to buy domestic goods without any tariff and take advantage of tax breaks in the new bill. ^[xvi]

Conclusion: Speed Defines Bubbles—Not Perception

Twenty years ago, I visited a few cities in Asia, Arabia, and Latin America that are far bigger than New York City. When I mentioned these fast growing city-states like Shenzhen or the UAE, most of my friends in New York had never heard of these areas a mere 2 decades ago. ^[xvii]

Thus, the world and its’ 8 billion consumers is much bigger than we think with the USA only at 4% of the global population. As such, a market bubble is constrained by global variables and defined narrowly by unsustainable acceleration, not destination.

If the S&P 500 were to reach 10,000 in a single year, detached from earnings, global growth, demographics, and productivity, the local bubble concerns would be justified.

But a move toward 10,000 over 24 to 36 months, supported by global demand, falling costs, AI-driven productivity, lower taxes, streamlined regulations, improving consumer balance sheets, and structural capital inflows, represents global economic normalization, not excess.

In contrast, the more dangerous bubble today may be perceptual—shaped by declining legacy cities and amplified by media centers unaware that much of the world is functioning, adapting, and growing.

As a note, I read 200 MSM articles about tariffs in 2025 and not a one of them mentioned that over 150+ nations had tariffs and non-tariff barriers on the USA before Trump was re-elected in a virtual landslide by a plurality of union voters and citizens.

Further, 93% of the media said that Trump could never be elected again.

These two issues alone are proof that the MSM bubble theory is fear-mongering at best and possibly the “Wall Street Media” trying to get a quick correction to invest in stocks a bit cheaper.

The risk, therefore, is not that markets are too optimistic—but that too many observers have weak data and are looking at the wrong places for answers.

Being a licensed attorney and formerly licensed by the FINRA/NASD as an Wall Street Firm investment advisor, I can say that if investors stick with Blue Chip Stocks and Index funds which includes some commodities exposure, this could be one of the best three years in history for the long-term investor.

Learn these principles and discuss them with a licensed professional.

** Consult with a licensed professional before making any important decision.

_______________
Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® holds a Doctor of Jurisprudence (JD), and an MBA from ABA and AACSB Accredited programs. Mentz is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, EdTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award-winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 25 ranked law schools in the USA and is founder of the ChE Chartered Economist ® certification & education programs. George Mentz has served as a White House Commissioner, and has served the Civil Service Commission for Police and Fire and the Airport Commission (Home of Space Force). Comm'r Mentz is one of the few lawyers who has ever earned Wall Street Firm licenses of Series 7,63, and 65 , served as a Judge for the ABA, has led civil litigation cases in fraud and defamation, as well as testified as an expert in FINRA/NASD financial arbitration.

^[i] Is the AI Boom a Bubble Waiting to Pop? Here’s What History Says - Bloomberg

^[ii] Investing in Popular Stocks: FANG, MAMAA, & Magnificent 7 | Britannica Money

^[iii] Smart 529 Moves for Families With Several Children | Newsmax.com

^[iv] Before Trashing the 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' - Get the Facts | Newsmax.com

^[v] The OBBB Will Save You Thousands on Your Next Car | Newsmax.com

^[vi] America's Balance Sheet: $300 Trillion in Assets | Newsmax.com

^[vii] U.S. 'AA+/A-1+' Sovereign Ratings Affirmed; Outlo | S&P Global Ratings

^[viii] S&P 500 Goes to 10,000 | Newsmax.com

^[ix] Gas Prices Jan 6^th 2026 at $1.79 per Gallon | KRDO

^[x] Powell Departs June, 2026: Call It Liberation Day for Fed, U.S. | Newsmax.com

^[xi] The Probability of a Stock Market Correction is Very Low in 2025 | Newsmax.com

^[xii] NYC Mayor Adams: Shoplifting Costing Low-Income Retail Workers Jobs | Newsmax.com