US Believes Only 20 Hostages Still Alive in Gaza

Multiple intelligence and security sources at the highest levels of the U.S. and Israel confirm that authorities believe only about 20 of the 251 hostages taken alive by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, remain alive.

One U.S. government source said that 20 is the "working number" of those believed to be alive in ongoing negotiations underway in Qatar between Israel and Hamas.

The figure of 20 is approximate and includes only civilians and female Israeli soldiers taken prisoner.

"If the number included Israeli male soldiers, it could go higher," one senior Israeli source told Newsmax, but suggested it would not be a large increase.

Some public assessments, however, say the number of remaining hostages could be closer to 40.

Neither Israel's embassy in Washington nor the Israel Defense Forces would confirm the accuracy of the numbers.

"We have no information to share on this matter at the moment," said Einav Hadari, spokeswoman for the Embassy of Israel.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, spokesman for the IDF, similarly refused to confirm or deny the number of hostages believed to be alive.

President-elect Donald Trump's transition team has also been informed of the known survivor count, and the matter has already become a high focus for his national security team. Trump has spoken to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at least three times in the past several weeks, according to a transition source.

Trump has vowed serious and deadly consequences unless the American hostages are released.

At his Mar-a-Lago press conference Tuesday, Trump vowed that "all hell will break out in the Middle East" if the hostages are not released by Jan. 20, the date of his inauguration.

"And it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone," Trump said. "We want to get back those hostages for Israel and for us."

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas took 251 Israelis, foreigners, and soldiers from Israel back into the Gaza strip.

Over 100 of these captives were released in a ceasefire deal that ended in December 2023.

Publicly, Israeli authorities state 100 are still possibly alive and 36 are believed to be dead.
Privately, the working number is much less than 100.

"I have heard a wide array of accounts concerning the alleged count of live hostages, ranging from around 30 to well over 60," said Irina Tsukerman, an analyst with the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

"Part of the reason is that Hamas has been deliberately vague and misleading, depending on the direction of the talks. And part of the reason is that, apparently, some of the hostages have been held by groups other than Hamas, so it's very difficult to assess their status," Tsukerman said.

One source said the "20" number was what Hamas is purporting to have alive under its control.

Tribal clans or other groups in Gaza may be keeping some hostages separately from Hamas. Hamas also has acknowledged to having dozens of corpses of dead hostages, whose return is important to Israel.

"We just don't know," the Israeli source said, explaining the ambiguity in the numbers.

But Israelis blame the Biden administration for the expected high loss of life among hostages and the prolonged suffering of their families.

The Biden administration delayed for nearly four months Israel's military engagement in Rafah, allowing for hostages to be moved or killed.

One senior source described the Biden administration as having engaged in "blackmail and every conceivable threat" to stop Netanyahu from giving the order to enter Rafah.

At the time, Biden had warned that if the IDF engaged in an all-out attack on the city, the U.S. would slap an arms embargo on Israel.

Israel did launch an offensive into Rafah last May, wiping out Hamas bases on its outskirts while making targeted strikes in the city.

Currently, negotiations between Israel, Hamas, and Qatar for the release of the remaining hostages continue.

Netanyahu agreed Friday to send a delegation consisting of representatives of the IDF, Shin Bet, and the Mossad to Doha.

"There is a good chance that the negotiations will succeed this time," Moussa Abu Marzook, a senior member of the Hamas political bureau with ties to the U.S. pro-Hamas network, told a Qatari newspaper.

John Rossomondo writes on national security matters for Newsmax.