The Islamic Republic of Iran is fast approaching the Aug. 30 deadline set by the United Kingdom, France, and Germany to demonstrate cooperation over its nuclear program and thus avoid the re-implementation of UN sanctions suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal.
The U.S. withdrew from that agreement in 2018, and by the following year Iran was openly violating its commitments, enriching uranium to 60% purity — a step away from weapons-grade.
Earlier this year, the regime had accumulated enough material for an estimated ten nuclear devices. In June, the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors formally recognized Iran as being in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This prompted Israel to launch strikes on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure, with the U.S. briefly joining the offensive by targeting the fortified Fordow enrichment site and two other facilities.
The 12-day Iran-Israel conflict ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, but Tehran's subsequent statements underscored its determination to reconstitute the nuclear program.
In this context, the E3 signaled readiness to trigger the JCPOA's "snapback" provision, reimposing UN sanctions regardless of objections from Russia or China, both of which have drawn closer to Tehran in recent years.
Those ties include military cooperation.
Iran, Russia, and China have conducted joint naval exercises, while Tehran seeks Chinese jet fighters to modernize its air force. Beijing, meanwhile, continues purchasing Iranian and Russian oil in defiance of U.S. pressure.
The longer Western powers delay decisive action, the greater the danger of renewed war. Yet the 12-day conflict exposed just how vulnerable Tehran truly is.
That vulnerability creates an opportunity for the international community – if it acts quickly.
The regime's weakness stems not only from damaged military infrastructure but also from its loss of legitimacy at home.
Iran's judiciary admitted that more than 21,000 people have been arrested on vague security charges since the war, reflecting the regime’s deep fear of domestic unrest.
That fear is justified.
Since 2018, Iran has witnessed three nationwide uprisings, many organized by Resistance Units affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), the country’s leading pro-democracy opposition.
The regime's brutality is escalating. After killing 750 protesters during the 2022 uprising, Tehran launched a wave of executions: 850 in 2023, roughly 1,000 in 2024, and more than 800 already in 2025.
Two executions in late July targeted MEK supporters, and five more dissidents are believed to face imminent execution.
This campaign of repression is not a sign of strength but of desperation.
It demonstrates how fearful the regime is of the organized opposition and the prospect of its own downfall.
On Sept. 6, a large number of Iranian expatriates from across Europe, joined by international supporters and Western dignitaries, will gather in Brussels for a major protest.
The rally will spotlight not only Tehran's nuclear violations but also its support for terrorism, its violent crackdowns on dissent, and its record-breaking use of the death penalty.
The event, organized by the Iranian Resistance, will draw particular attention to the democratic coalition of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), of which the MEK is the principal member.
Both the NCRI and MEK argue that the solution to Iran's nuclear and human rights crises is the same: regime change by the Iranian people, supported by international recognition and pressure.
The Brussels protest will make clear that the Iranian people are not passive victims but active agents of change.
Their message is that Western powers must not separate Iran’s nuclear threat from its repression at home. Both are tools of survival for a weakened theocracy.
The choice before the West is not between appeasement and another Middle Eastern war. There is a third option: to recognize the Iranian people’s right to resistance, to impose snapback sanctions without delay, and to politically support the NCRI and MEK in their struggle for democracy.
Participants in the Brussels rally will urge precisely this course: greater political and economic pressure on Tehran, solidarity with its democratic opposition, and the recognition that regime change from within is both possible and necessary.
By acting decisively now, Western democracies can prevent Tehran from reconstituting its nuclear program, strengthen the Iranian people's hand, and eliminate one of the gravest threats to regional and global security.
Iran is weaker and more isolated than ever.
The global community has a rare opportunity to stand on the right side of history — by supporting the Iranian people and their Resistance movement in their drive for a free, democratic, and non-nuclear Iran.
Ivan Sascha Sheehan is a professor of Public and International affairs and the associate dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore. Opinions expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan. Read More — Here.
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