Americans live in an age of miracles so routine that we don’t even notice them. Consider food. For most of human history, people went to bed hungry every night. One bad harvest could mean death and despair.
That changed in the 20th century, but not entirely. In 1941, “one-third of men called up for service failed their physicals due to poor nutrition,” according to The Secret History of Home Economics. Americans were better off than most, but not well off enough.
In our own time: if you are old enough to remember the 1960s, 1970s, even the 1980s, you can remember a time when there were parts of the year without particular foods. Strawberries were available in early summer, but not otherwise. Apples were available in fall, but not spring.
Today, though, a miracle has happened. The United States enjoys fresh produce year-round thanks to the worldwide security blanket provided by our Navy. We shop around the globe and have just about any food we want available just about any time we want it.
However, we shouldn’t take this bounty for granted because in the year 2025 we are at risk of taking a big step backward. President Trump’s 10% tariffs will make all imported food more expensive, and perhaps unavailable.
Consider one particular product: olive oil. The United States is the second largest consumer of olive oil in the world, and it is also the leading importer of olive oil, bringing in almost half of the world’s production of olive oil.
We need to import olive oil because there aren’t many climates in the U.S. that support olive trees; try growing one in Maine or Minnesota. Even though California has a friendly climate, it can’t produce enough. California olive oil production has fluctuated between 7,000 and 12,000 metric tons in recent years, enough for about 2% of domestic consumption.
That is how tariffs become a big problem. For products that can be made anywhere, only a small portion of a tariff gets passed along to consumers. Shoes can come from China or Vietnam or Egypt or the U.S. So consumers only have to pony up about $2 for every $10 of tariffs imposed.
On the other hand, olive oil can only come from certain climates, so almost the entire cost of the tariff is passed right along to the consumer.
This especially matters in the olive oil example, because retail data from last year shows that olive oil purchases increased in households making above $70,000 per year but fell in households making below $70,000 per year. The steepest drop happened in households making less than $40,000. Even before the tariffs, families were being priced out of this product.
Now consider that the same theory applies to many other fresh food products. Apples. Grapes. Tomatoes. Tariffs are going to take a bite out of the purchase of these fresh foods and force Americans to purchase salty, processed food instead.
There is a place for tariffs to protect American industries that are viable, yet vulnerable to foreign competition. Economists can argue over whether tariffs help the car industry, the steel industry, or the oil industry. But the food industry is fundamentally different.
For one thing, olives literally grow on trees. Even if we planted tens of thousands of olive trees tomorrow, we couldn’t produce oil for years, perhaps a decade.
Nobody knows what the tariff regime will look like in the future, so nobody is willing to take that risk. Tariffs don’t protect the olive industry. They destroy it.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently told NBC News: “What I’m saying is the American dream is not ‘let them eat flat screens.’”
Yet the administration’s policies may leave many with no choice of healthy food to eat. Trump lifted tariffs on iPhones; perhaps he really does want people to eat screens?
Donald Trump knows Americans need to eat well to be healthy and happy. He should lift tariffs on food imports right away, to help make the Make America Healthy Again vision a reality.
Jared Whitley is a longtime politico who has worked in the US Senate, White House, and defense industry. He has an MBA from Hult business school in Dubai, and in 2024 he won the Top of the Rockies best columnist award. Read Jared Whitley's Reports — More Here.
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