For decades, China has pursued a quiet, calculated ascent to global dominance. It has done so not just through economic manipulation and military expansion, but by cultivating strategic alliances with rogue regimes that share a deep disdain for Western democracy.
One of the most important, yet underappreciated, of these relationships is China's bond with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The implications of this alliance, especially now as Iran teeters on the brink of internal collapse, are not just regional. They are global.
And they may shape the outcome of a new, emerging world order.
With recent developments in Iran — escalating internal unrest, Israeli military threats, and President Donald Trump signaling a willingness to target Tehran's nuclear infrastructure — we may be witnessing the slow-motion implosion of the regime.
If the mullahs fall, the effects will ripple far beyond the Middle East. Chief among those impacted will be the Chinese Communist Party.
Beijing has spent the last decade deepening economic and military ties with Iran. From joint naval exercises to oil imports and infrastructure investment, the CCP sees Iran as both a strategic partner and a necessary counterweight to American influence.
Iran is a cornerstone in China's Belt and Road Initiative. Its oil flows are critical to sustaining China's industrial machine. Its ports offer a physical footprint near U.S. allies and naval routes.
But regime change in Tehran would shatter that investment. A free Iran, aligned with the West, would represent a major geopolitical and economic setback for the CCP. It would cut off a key supplier of energy, fracture China's access to the Persian Gulf, and threaten the broader anti-American axis that Beijing has worked so hard to build.
Make no mistake: China is not a passive observer of Iran's turmoil. It is deeply invested in the regime's survival.
That's why we're seeing Beijing issue warnings to its citizens to flee Iran. Not because it cares about their safety, but because it senses a shift that could undercut its global ambitions.
And this is where the United States must act with clarity and strategic foresight. We have a chance — perhaps a fleeting one — to weaken two adversaries with one blow.
Supporting the Iranian people in their fight for freedom, and empowering the organized resistance to fill the vacuum, could dismantle not just a terror-exporting regime, but a vital node in China's international web.
This is not a call for U.S. troops on the ground. Quite the opposite. It is a call for leveraging sanctions, public diplomacy and intelligence capabilities to amplify the cracks already visible in Iran's ruling structure.
Let the Iranian people do what only they can: overthrow tyranny from within. But let us make no mistake about what's at stake. The fall of Iran's regime is not merely a Middle Eastern event. It's a global inflection point.
In many ways, geopolitics today is starting to resemble the hardened, ideologically driven alliances that preceded global conflicts in the past.
The world is dividing itself once again — not just along geographic lines, but philosophical ones. On one side, we see autocracies: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. On the other hand, struggling democracies are trying to regain footing after years of appeasement and globalist drift.
Iran's survival strengthens that axis of authoritarianism. Its collapse disrupts it.
This is precisely why President Trump's firm stance matters. He is not rushing to war; he is signaling resolve. He is not asking for regime change from the outside; he is asserting that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
That message — clear, unbending, and credible — sends shockwaves not just to Tehran, but to Beijing as well.
The Chinese economy, despite its size, is fragile. It is burdened by youth unemployment, real estate collapse, and capital flight. Disrupting its energy inputs from Iran would amplify those pressures and force Xi Jinping to spend more resources on damage control and less on projection of power.
The left-leaning commentariat often treats geopolitics like a chessboard, where everyone must move cautiously and avoid offense. But the reality is more brutal. We are in a game of wills, and our adversaries understand only strength.
Iran's regime is morally and economically bankrupt. Its fall should not be feared. It should be allowed to accelerate.
To be clear, the Iranian people will do the heavy lifting. They already are. But the U.S. must do its part to stand with them and to expose the hidden hand of Beijing in propping up terror.
When the mullahs fall, China will lose one of its most vital partners — a blow that may finally slow its march.
We must stop thinking about world events as isolated skirmishes. The dots are connecting. What happens in Tehran will echo in Beijing.
And what we do in response may determine whether America leads the next century or watches it from the sidelines.
Jim Renacci is a former U.S. Congressman, businessman, and conservative leader dedicated to putting America first. Read More of His Reports — Here.
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