An Idea to Overcome a Major Economic Challenge

President Trump campaigned on a number of economic issues, one being his determination to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. from other countries.  Since taking office, he has been implementing policies that he believes will help to achieve this goal. 

I agree with President Trump on both the goal and the fact that the steps he is taking will lead to the desired result; however, there is one significant challenge that could spoil these efforts if we do not have a plan to overcome it.  That significant challenge is a severe labor shortage that is already hampering our economy and will only get worse as more jobs are created.

For several years after the pandemic, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce consistently talked about the need for additional workers in our economy.  In a study published in November 2023, the chamber stated, “Even if every unemployed worker were to fill an open job within their respective industry, there would still be unfilled positions, highlighting the widespread labor shortage.”  (Understanding America’s Labor Shortage: The Most Impacted Industries | U.S. Chamber of Commerce)

Although the Chamber’s latest update to the report in June 2025 states that the gap has closed since 2023, many states continue to experience worker shortages.  Additionally, the chamber says that the U.S. has an overall smaller workforce today when compared to 2001, and it is expected to continue shrinking for years to come.  (Understanding America’s Labor Shortage | U.S. Chamber of Commerce)

In addition to this, various surveys have estimated that there are between 15 and 20 million undocumented people in the U.S., many of whom have jobs and represent a sizable portion of the workforce. If you accept the research by the chamber and reports of the numbers of undocumented workers, you begin to understand the worker shortage problem that could hold our economy back from achieving the President’s goals.  Even President Trump has spoken about the need for a “temporary pass” to retain undocumented workers who have been working on farms and other businesses for many years because he understands that without them, our worker shortage has the potential to get much worse. (What is Trump’s ‘Temporary pass’ for undocumented migrants working in farms & hospitality sector - The Economic Times)  

A recent Pew Research study found that 97% of Americans support deportations of violent criminals. The level of support falls dramatically when people are asked about deporting those who are working and avoiding criminal behavior though.  This provides us with a chance to do something that could potentially have super majority support, while also being extremely good for our economy and our country.    (Americans' Views of Deportations and Immigration Enforcement | Pew Research Center)

By being creative, we have the opportunity to implement a solution that will bolster our workforce, bring in much-needed revenue to help pay Social Security benefits to U.S. retirees, and potentially avoid deportations that could cause the administration to lose public support.  This solution is an immigration tariff, in which participation would be voluntary for both employers and employees. 

Here is how it would work:

• Under this process, employers who suspect they have undocumented workers could pay a fee to the government to put those workers through a vetting process.
• If the workers pass vetting, they would be issued a long-term work visa (Yellow Card).
• Upon issuance of this visa, the employer ‒ not the employee ‒ would then begin to pay a $25.00 per day tariff for each day worked, per employee enrolled in this visa program.
• Importantly, this program would not include a path to citizenship. 

My team and I believe it is conceivable that this tariff could bring in over $70 billion per year in calculations that we have recently updated.  If you wish to read more details, please visit A Tariff That Could Rebuild U.S. Manufacturing? | Newsmax.com.

The potential catastrophe that could be created if we were to deport people who stay out of trouble and quietly work to support our economy reminds me of prohibition, which took effect in 1920.  The idea behind prohibition was that we would rid our country of alcoholic beverages, but the result was quite different.  Instead of ridding our country of alcohol, it drove the alcohol industry underground.  The government also lost revenue that was estimated to be 30%-40% of federal income at that time.  (How Taxes Enabled Alcohol Prohibition and Also Led to Its Repeal)

The result of prohibition was a thriving, but lawless alcohol industry that the government could neither regulate nor tax.  The country finally came to the realization that a legal industry that can be regulated and taxed was much preferable to an industry that was run by criminals and could not be taxed.  As a result, prohibition was repealed in 1933.  (Prohibition | Definition, History, Eighteenth Amendment, & Repeal | Britannica)

I have strong evidence that something similar is happening with otherwise law-abiding undocumented people working in this country.  I talk to employers all over the country regularly and have learned that many are paying suspected undocumented workers in cash ‒ meaning no taxes are being withheld and paid.  Just like during prohibition, the activity is taking place, yet we have no ability to regulate it or receive income from it.  An immigration tariff would solve these problems and provide a win for employers, workers, and the great majority of the public that does not want to deport long-time residents who are supporting our economy.

These workers remind me of stories I have read about people who came through Ellis Island seeking an opportunity to fulfill their hopes and dreams in America.  In this quest to fulfill their dreams, they made our country richer in every way: financially, culturally, spiritually, etc.

While we must continue President Trump’s plans to secure our border so that we do everything possible to prevent people from entering our country illegally moving forward, we must also recognize that there are millions of good people already here quietly contributing to our country, rather than taking away from it.  We should recognize and capitalize on this now to avoid the mistakes of prohibition.

Joe from Texas is a family man with children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren. He's experienced tremendous success and lived the American Dream. His beliefs are both straightforward and deeply held. He believes in God, his family, and the United States of America. For more information, please visit www.JoeFromTexas.com. Read Joe Penland's Reports — More Here.