A Russian Victory in Ukraine Will Have Only Dire Consequences for the U.S.
The best way to stop the bleeding of treasure and lives in Ukraine is for America to lead the moral charge in lending aid to Ukraine’s victory as opposed to half hearted measures or signing a sham deal.
There are plenty of places where aggression happens, and in those places the United States should have little to no involvement, with the possible exception of acting as an arbiter of disputes.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine does not meet this criterion, for a Russian victory in Ukraine will have dire consequences economically and militarily for the United States.
American credibility is already on the line in Ukraine.
Like it or not, we are involved!
But more than that, even if we were not involved our interests are at stake.
If Russia were to win in Ukraine the following events are much more likely: Russian control of Ukrainian economic resources to include minerals and a sizeable segment of certain foods used by the world, Russian hybrid warfare against NATO and the U.S. and stirring up Russian minority populations in the Baltics, renewed Iranian aggression in the Mideast, North Korean hybrid warfare, and Chinese invasion of Taiwan as well as blocking strategic chokepoints in the South China Sea.
Ukraine being one of the major breadbaskets of the world, as well as having strategic mineral deposits, simply cannot be permitted to fall or sign a phony peace deal with Russia.
Further, the Black Sea is a major area of the world’s waterways and Ukraine has, almost from the beginning, won the naval war by neutralizing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
This victory has kept the sea lanes of the Western world mostly free from Russian interference in military and economic spheres, saving lives and treasure.
A false peace, which is the only kind Russia will sign short of losing the war, will completely reverse this win for Ukraine and the free people of the world.
Russia has already clearly articulated not just intent towards the Baltic States in some of the easternmost parts of NATO but has actively engaged in forms of hybrid warfare and, thankfully thus far rather unsuccessful, attempts to stir up the Russian minority populations in those areas.
If we want to save money, the best way is to arm Ukraine to rather than letting Ukraine sign a peace deal that will have dire financial and moral consequences.
The peace dividend through such a Russian loss is important cost savings.
The alternative is either an immediate American/Western/Ukrainian defeat or a defeat that plays out over time with Russia breaking a deal.
For those that argue that China is the bigger threat that is true, but the defeat of Russia is geopolitically tied to managing threats from the Far East.
China would also be a different type of war, at least in the initial stages being comprised of large-scale sea and air as opposed to the purely conventional (albeit hybrid) war in Europe.
There's a machine in America that doesn't want this war to be won. That machine is one wishing it keep going, so weapons can continue to be purchased.
It's not the machine of peace, and it's not the machine of winning wars.
Additionally, a machine of hypocrisy is extant in Europe, one giving weapons to Ukraine but which also funds Russia. (Belgium among other nations that give half-hearted sanctions while financing the, albeit so called, Russian "war machine.")
The only man who can stop such hypocrisy and lead the West to victory is our nation's 47th commander in chief, Donald J. Trump.
Our president has a chance to give Europe an ultimatum.
He can say to them, "Win this thing and win with us or we stop enabling European hypocrisy that's bleeding economies."
The current war is one which can be fully won; a war unlike the Russian and American Wars in Afghanistan; a land where the conflict could not be fully won, only managed.
Ukraine is a war which is classically conventional, the type that the American military can easily show others how to win with enough aid and advice (not troops).
Ukraine has done amazingly well with a marginal number of resources comparatively speaking to Russia.
It would have defeated Russia a long time ago without the very slow growth in aid packages that were more reactive than proactive.
If the United State fails to seize this moment, the economic and geopolitical consequences will be akin to the inglorious exit from Afghanistan which emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine and China to step it up in the South China Sea.
The best road to exiting the war, and for greater fiscal stability that comes from the end of such conflict, is through winning. Otherwise the consequences of losing will cost us all much more. As one of President Trump’s favorites, General Douglas MacArthur said, "In war there is no substitute for victory."
(The views expressed in the preceding article are those of the author and not any government agency.)
Larry Provost has written for Townhall, Fox News, The Baltic Times and InFocus (Jewish Policy Center) and has appeared on several television outlets, including "FOX News @Night with Shannon Bream." He holds degrees from several colleges and is a veteran of the World Trade Center search and rescue, Afghanistan, and Iraq. He and his wife are adoptive parents. Read more Larry Provost reports — Here.
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