(The Abraham Accords were the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first administration; he has made it clear that his new administration will seek expanding them- Forbes, March 8, 2025.)
"I wish to underscore our support for President Trump’s vision and efforts to promote peace . . . including in our region. We also share common values. . . and remain hopeful that U.S.-Azerbaijan relations will reach a new level during his Presidency"– Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, @presidentaz
Ever since emerging as a separate sovereign ex-Soviet entity, its energy resources and critical geostrategic location, Azerbaijan was destined to be a country of pivotal strategic significance.
Although this has not always been adequately recognized, the recent Israel-Iran conflict has thrown Baku’s centrality into stark relief, which can no longer be downplayed.
As one observer noted, when President Donald Trump posted a clip from Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev’s speech at a recent international conference, it was a signal that Baku’s long-standing partnership with Israel and Washington was now firmly on his radar.
Indeed, even before the Israel-Iran War, there were signs of Washington's perception of the value of Azerbaijan and its ties to Israel.
One of the most significant was a visit by Trump envoy, Steve Witkoff to Baku, following an endorsement by both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a group of prominent rabbis for both the inclusion of Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords and for bolstering a trilateral alliance between Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku.
Indeed, several months ago, the value of such an axis was raised in this column — and the growing recognition of its merits appears to be spreading.
Burgeoning bilateral bonds
The breakup of the USSR generated several unexpected events — some of far-reaching strategic impact. One of these was as a burgeoning strategic axis between Shia Muslim, Azerbaijan, an ex-Soviet republic and Israel — for decades the object of USSR animosity.
The Azerbaijan-Israel relationship began in 1992, soon after Azerbaijan attained independence. The two countries quickly established diplomatic ties, and bilateral relations continued to strengthen. In March 2023, Baku opened its embassy in Israel, formalizing the diplomatic links.
Since the 1990s, Azerbaijan played a considerable role in bolstering Israel’s security and enhancing its access to energy. Additionally, both countries maintain strong cooperation in defense, intelligence, and trade.
With the outbreak of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, Azerbaijan was reportedly the only Muslim-majority country supporting Israel. Despite pressure from other Islamic nations, Baku maintained its strategic partnership with the Jewish state.
Indeed, after the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, Azerbaijan citizens gathered at Israel’s Embassy in Baku, expressing support and sympathy.
Augmenting the Abraham Accords
In light of the foregoing analysis, it is hardly surprising that a growing number of voices are calling for widening the framework of the Abraham Accords to include Azerbaijan. Indeed, it is not easy to identify any persuasive counter-argument to oppose such a proposal.
Indeed, as a recent Forbes article observed, "The Abraham Accords, the normalization of relations between Israel and several majority Muslim states, [were] the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of Donald Trump’s first administration. As his second term takes off, the president has made it clear that his administration will seek an expansion of this groundbreaking framework."
It continues, "One Muslim-majority country that already has a longstanding partnership with Israel and is an obvious candidate to join the Accords framework is Azerbaijan."
Similarly, an Atlantic Council piece urged adjoining Azerbaijan to the Abraham Accords, even proposing holding an Abraham Accords summit in Baku.
It counselled, "Should the US take the same approach as Israel and deepen its diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Azerbaijan, it may reap similar geopolitical rewards."
Restructuring geopolitical realities in the Caucasus?
Of course, much has changed since the preemptive Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities in June, which, together with U.S. involvement, left Iran considerably defanged and diminished.
But while Tehran is down, it is far from out.
So, understandably, Baku has been loath to flout any collaborative strategic role with Israel against Tehran during the June conflict.
Nonetheless, several major media channels carried reports of Israeli drones using Azarbaijani territory and airspace to launch cross-border strikes against Iranian targets.
Indeed, given Iran’s current weakened state, a strong case may well be made that now is a particularly opportune moment to seize to fundamentally reshape geopolitical realities in the Caucasus with a strong pro-Western alliance.,
Yet despite the manifest benefits that such an alliance would entail, there are still some discordant voices in the U.S. that assert that the establishment of adjoining Azerbaijan into such an alignment should be conditioned on Baku forging some peace deal with Armenia.
Such calls should not be heeded since they tend to blur the underlying rationale underpinning the Abraham Accords, which were built to unite Muslim countries that choose tolerance and reject anti-Israeli extremism.
While peace between Baku and Yerevan is indeed a noble goal, Armenia has no part to play in that effort and forcing it in would be counterproductive, complicate the process and retard achieving important goals.
Archetypal Positive-Sum Game
In recent decades, it is fair to state that Israel’s foreign policy has been — to be charitable — far from flawless. But when it comes to the decision to initiate/cultivate the relationship with Azerbaijan, Israel’s policy makers should be commended for their laudable foresight and formulation of what is emerging as an archetypal positive-sum game for all involved.
Its extension can only generate benefits for those included in it.
Dr. Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defense establishment. He's the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defense & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project. Read Dr. Sherman's Reports — More Here.
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