U.S. Can't Ignore Central Asia Much Longer

"After only one year of President Biden being in office, we have seen the complete collapse of Afghanistan and a return of the Taliban rule; Russia on the verge of war with Ukraine, in what could be the largest invasion in Europe since World War II; the rise of authoritarianism in Latin America … and Iran’s continued build-up of its nuclear program." Rep. Michael McCaul. R-Texas, Biden’s Foreign Policy Failures.

"U.S. foreign policy during the Biden administration has abandoned allies, strengthened adversaries, and put U.S. national security at risk." Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), Biden's Strategic Failures in Foreign Policy,

Over the last four years of Democratic incumbency, the record of U.S. policy has hardly been strewn with staggering successes.

A lamentable litany of lacunae

Arguably, the nadir was the humiliating 2021 evacuation of Afghanistan, leaving over a dozen U.S. servicemen dead, with countless U.S. citizens and erstwhile Afghan allies abandoned. Moreover, there can be scant doubt that the sense of American weakness conveyed by the Afghan debacle fed into in Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine barely two years later (see Rep. MaCaul’s prediction above.)

Recently, Newsweek published a piece laying out a litany of U.S. policy failures in Africa, Accordingly, African countries increasingly believe that they should rely on Beijing for their commercial needs and Moscow for their security needs.

Of course, for Washington’s strongest Mideast ally, Israel, the most ominous aspect of flailing U.S. policy is Biden’s fainthearted approach toward Iran, allowing Tehran to sow mayhem across the globe via its terrorist proxies, while advancing ever-closer to weaponized nuclear capability.

Periphery of the Periphery

Lately, there have been accumulating signs of an additional theater, in which another fiasco seems to be emerging: Central Asia.

For decades this area was considered the “periphery of the periphery,” never really holding a central position in US interests until 9/11 which brought the region into far sharper focus.

Two millennia ago, Central Asia (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) was a major hub for international commerce along China’s Silk route, trading the treasures of old — silk, spices, jade, precious metals, ivory. Today, they harbor different treasures that have greatly elevated their strategic importance.

These are significant deposits of metals and minerals crucial in a broad array of high-tech products and the alternative energy industry — including almost 40% of the world’s manganese ore, chromium (30%), lead (20%), zinc (over 12%), and titanium (almost 10%), alongside other valuable resources. In particular, Kazakhstan seems a potential alternative for rare earth elements instead of China, which accounts for 70% of global supply.

The struggle for control

Unsurprisingly Washington’s major competitors for control/influence in this increasingly crucial region are Beijing and Moscow.

Despite being part of the former-USSR, and the aging elites' lingering pro-Russia sentiments, there is a growing sense of alienation among wide segments of the post-Soviet youth with looser political/cultural ties with Moscow — with over half the population under-30.

China too is bent on asserting itself in the region, making huge investments in Central Asia. Although overall, governments have welcomed Chinese investment through the Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI), public opinion seems far less favorable.

Suspicion of China has been prevalent in Central Asian for centuries, reinforced partly by Soviet-era propaganda after the 1960-69 Sino-Soviet dispute. Thus, recent opinion surveys show distinct downward trends in public sentiment toward China.

Clearly, souring relations with Russia and growing skepticism of Chinese influence have created a window of opportunity for the U.S. to bolster its standing in the region.

However, even if Central Asian countries are averse to Russia and hesitant about doing business with China, the image of weakness conveyed by the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia's Ukraine invasion has left them with few other options.

Neither will nor ability?

Indeed, there is no guarantee America has the will or ability to engage successfully with Central Asia. Some observers have been blatantly dismissive of U.S. efforts in the region.

Thus, when Washington allotted $50 million to the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia “to expand regional trade routes, establish new export markets, attract and leverage greater private sector investment”, one RAND analysis sardonically asserted: “…it pales in comparison to Chinese investment” of a $4 billion investment in Central Asia…”.

Furthermore, critics of current U.S. policy underscore that its focus on human rights has little impact relative to the massive Chinese investment in industry, infrastructure ... and surveillance technology. Sadly, despite these demands’ undisputed moral merit they are unlikely to advance American interests in securing its critical mineral sources or reduce its dependence on an inherently adversarial China for their supply.

Accordingly, the current situation seems the result of a grave misreading of prevailing Central Asian politics, seriously disadvantaging the U.S. in this increasingly vital region.

Similar symptoms

A similar disregard for the tenets of realpolitik is reflected in elements of Biden’s policy further west, in the Caucasus — specifically toward Azerbaijan, a lynchpin on the Baku-Tribli-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that comprises a strategic alternative for the Russian pipeline in conveying Kazakh oil to Europe.

I recently touched on some of the profound defects of U.S. policy, illustrating how the current administration has, in effect, “abandoned allies, strengthened adversaries”, in sanctioning pro-Western Azerbaijan while supporting Armenia, complicit with Iran in circumventing Western sanctions against Russia.

Indeed, since Azerbaijan retaking Nagorno Karabagh (2023), Armenia, has begun to pry itself loose of Moscow’s grasp. Moreover, peace negotiations between the erstwhile adversaries are now underway.

Accordingly, as Azerbaijan is a vital element in the West’s energy security, a staunch ally of Israel, it is difficult to see how any lingering tensions on the part of Washington enhance American interests.

One can only hope that the upcoming November elections will usher in a fundamental change in policy-orientation.