On the eve of the historic presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, our new poll finds that America's voters are yearning for substance on the leading issues that affect them personally.
As they do yearn, voters are turning off Biden and opening to Trump.
On the head-to-head ballot, Trump leads Biden 46% to 44%.
Trump continues to cut into Biden's base — winning 28% among Black voters and 42% among Hispanics.
In a multicandidate race, Trump receives 39%, Biden 37%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 10%, Cornel West 2%, Jill Stein 2%, and Chase Oliver 1% — all with only 9% undecided.
With the debate approaching Thursday, pundits and commentators speculate about candidate drug testing and stamina; voters don't want to hear about this.
And they're tired of the legal persecutions and witch hunts.
In fact, we found they are downright angry.
Instead, they want to hear about the issues that directly impact their lives and their families.
The findings of our just-completed national poll taken show the voters want to know which of the candidates will make their lives better. (This national poll of 1,000 likely voters, +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval, was completed between June 18 to 24.)
Bottom line: This debate is not about Joe Biden or Donald Trump. It is about the personal worries of of the American people.
When we asked: "On Thursday night, June 27th, President Biden and former President Trump will appear in their first debate on CNN. The moderators will be Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. From the following list which issue would you like to see the moderators ask these candidates about most?"
Almost half (49%) cited high prices and inflation as their first or second choice.
The concern was followed by secure border/immigration (31%), jobs/economy (21%), and Social Security/Medicare (16%).
Clearly, economic and "pocketbook" issues are the priority.
Much lower on the list were issues that Tapper and Bash will likely ask about first, big Democratic issues like "Protecting Democracy/Jan. 6th" (only 15%) and abortion (12%).
These are not big issues among voters, but are very large among the Democratic and progressive base.
Biden's failure to focus and win on economic issues is hurting him.
Some 68% say the country is on the wrong track with only 25% saying we're moving in the right direction.
Our poll finds that economic issues at 43% and specifically inflation at 25% remain the leading concerns of voters.
And exactly 50% of all voters say that the economy is in indeed in a recession.
Voters are not optimistic, with 62% saying the economy is getting worse.
Only 31% say it's getting better.
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The inflation impact of Biden policies has been horrendous for the country and for Biden, with 84% negatively impacted by inflation.
Again, almost half the nation, 49%, say they are "struggling" to afford basic necessities.
Trump voters at 58% and undecided voters at 62% say they are struggling.
Inflation knows no partisan boundaries, however.
Voters struggling with inflation increases among independents at 54%, Black voters at 43%, Hispanics at 53%, younger voters at 53%, and women at 53%.
Trump's "no taxes on tips" proposal is winning converts with 62% of voters approving of his plan to eliminate federal taxes for gratuities earned by servers, bartenders, car service drivers, food delivery workers, and other service workers.
So far voters are not buying Biden's claims and promises.
Two-thirds of all voters disagree with Joe Biden when he says inflation is going down.
And the legal targeting of Trump has backfired.
Some 67% of all voters agree with President Trump's statement that if the Justice Department and FBI can be weaponized and prosecute President Trump for political motives, in the future they will prosecute other political opponents.
No surprise Biden's approval rating is in the basement with 41% approving the job the incumbent is doing.
Biden's job disapprovals are weakening his core constituencies: 21% of Democrats, 38% of Black voters, 53% of Hispanics, and 54% of women disapprove.
These high disapproval numbers are allowing President Trump to dismantle the coalition that elected Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Trump is building a new, diverse coalition among working men and women, including Black voters, Hispanics, younger voters, and women.
Already 9% of Biden 2020 voters have already switched to Trump in 2024.
There are still 10% of all voters who are undecided.
There are 14% of all voters who disapprove of President Biden and are not yet voting for former President Trump.
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The plurality of voters already know that President Trump was better for them than Joe Biden. If after the debate they learn that Trump will be even better for them and their families in his next term, there will be a new majority for Trump with 131 days to go.
June Poll results may be found here: www.mclaughlinonline.com.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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