President Trump Sets Stage for Midterm Victory

In the wake of President Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, the Republican establishment was caught unprepared for the 2018 midterm elections.

Key GOP leaders at the time — Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., — urged the president to prioritize repealing Obamacare over enacting his signature tax cuts.

This strategic misstep delayed the economic momentum that could have turned the tide in the 2018 midterms, ultimately costing Republicans the House and leading to a politically motivated impeachment.

Now, President Trump has taken a far more assertive approach. In just his first six months of the new term, he has successfully driven the passage of sweeping, pro-growth tax reforms — widely regarded as a major legislative achievement.

Our latest national survey of 1,000 likely voters (conducted July 9–14, 2025) reveals strong public support for President Trump in the wake of these reforms.

His job approval rating remains solid, Republicans lead in the generic congressional ballot, and optimism about the direction of the country is at its highest level since before the pandemic.

A large majority supports key Trump policy stances, including the deportation of criminal illegal immigrants and preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Media outlets across the political spectrum, including Newsmax, have acknowledged President Trump’s accomplishments. CEO Chris Ruddy, for instance, gave the president an "A+" for his performance thus far. Still, despite legislative wins and economic improvements, Trump’s approval ratings face a ceiling.

There are two main reasons for this plateau:

1. A Deeply Divided Political Landscape – American voters now exist in two distinct political realities: pro-Trump and anti-Trump. Each camp consumes media within its own ideological echo chamber.
2. Persistent Media Bias – The traditional media establishment continues to present a slanted, often hostile portrayal of the Trump presidency, regardless of the facts.

Our polling reflects this divide. Thirty-seven percent of voters reside in the pro-Trump media ecosystem, regularly consuming outlets like Newsmax and Fox News.

Meanwhile, 36% lean left, primarily watching CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg, and CNBC. The remaining 29% are largely disengaged from political media.

Winning over this middle group will be essential for both parties in the midterms.

Here’s how voter sentiment breaks down within these media audiences:

• National Mood: Right Direction vs. Wrong Track – 42% to 50%
  • Right-leaning media viewers: 69% say right direction
  • Left-leaning media viewers: 30% say right direction
  • Non-engaged: Only 30% say right direction
• Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 42%
  • Right-leaning media: 72% favor Republicans
  • Left-leaning media: 61% favor Democrats
  • Non-engaged: Lean slightly Democratic, 46%-38%
• Trump Job Approval: 52% Approve, 43% Disapprove
  • Right-leaning: 74% approve
  • Left-leaning: 56% disapprove
  • Non-engaged: Split, 44% approve to 49% disapprove
• Economic Outlook: 40% Say It’s Getting Better, 53% Say Worse
  • Right-leaning: 64% optimistic
  • Left-leaning: 66% pessimistic
  • Non-engaged: 59% say worse
• Support for Iran Strike: 58% Support, 33% Oppose
  • Right-leaning: 78% support
  • Left-leaning: 45% support
  • Non-engaged: 48% support

One of the clearest examples of media influence is seen in public perception of Trump’s tax plan. Although the reforms are designed to stimulate growth, opinions are sharply divided:

• Tax Cuts vs. Spending Bill: 39% each
  • Right-leaning: 50% say it’s a tax cut
  • Left-leaning: 53% say it’s just a spending bill
  • Non-engaged: Evenly split, 35%–34%
• Overall Support for the Tax Plan: 44% Support, 42% Oppose
  • Right-leaning: 70% support
  • Left-leaning: 56% oppose
  • Non-engaged: Only 32% support, with 46% opposed

Among independents and moderates — key groups in the midterms — opposition to the tax cuts outweighs support. The Democrats and their media allies are working hard to shape this narrative.

Yet there is room for growth. When voters were asked whether they agree with the sentiment, "While I may not agree with everything Donald Trump and the MAGA movement say or stand for, I believe they’re right about putting America and the American people first," an overwhelming 67% agreed, while just 27% disagreed.

This suggests significant potential for the Trump coalition to expand heading into the midterms. But realizing that potential will require focused effort: communicating the positive impacts of the Trump tax cuts, reaching beyond the conservative base, and telling this economic success story to disengaged and skeptical voters alike.

The momentum is there. With continued leadership and clear messaging, President Trump and the GOP are well-positioned to secure a midterm victory in 2026.

Source:

M&A Poll: National Monthly – July 2025 | McLaughlin & Associates

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.