Another Debate, and Trump Is Winning

Donald Trump is crushing the Republican primary field and he’s beating his political persecutor, Joe Biden.

Our recent national poll was completed right before the second Republican debate.

This national poll of 1,000 likely voters (+/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval), was completed between Sept. 22 and 26.

In the multi candidate ballot among Republican primary voters, including independents, President Trump with 54% is crushing the Republican field.

President Trump leads Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., by 42 points. DeSantis, after all the media attention and wasting tens of millions of Never Trump donors’ dollars has collapsed and receives a paltry 12% down from 31% back in January.

The rest of the field is not much better with Vivek Ramaswamy stuck at 10%, Nikki Haley 6%, Mike Pence 5%, Tim Scott 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Doug Burgum 1%, Asa Hutchinson 1%, Perry Johnson 1%, Will Hurd 1%, and Larry Elder 0%.

Among the many things the Republican establishment has gotten wrong is that if they could get the lesser candidates to drop out, they could beat Trump with a single opponent.

Wrong again.

In a one-on-one race between President Trump and DeSantis the domination clear. Trump leads 71% to 28%.

This makes sense since back in January, among all voters, Ron DeSantis had a 40% favorable rating to 39% unfavorable rating.

However, now he’s had a net -13 point decline to only 36% favorable rating to 48% unfavorable rating.

Most American voters, as they get to know him, just don’t like him.

In the general election among all voters, in spite of four indictments in five months, President Trump beats Joe Biden 47% to 43% with 10% undecided.

Trump wins among Republicans 87% to 10%; takes 12% of Democrats to Biden’s 79% and wins independents 41% to 39%.

Trump also exceeds his 2020 share of the minority vote receiving 13% among African Americans and 40% among Hispanics.

It's important to note that since our poll is modeled after the 2020 turnout with four points more 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters, with Trump’s current four-point lead over Biden, there are now two voter segments giving President Trump his lead: 1. Biden to Trump flippers — 2020 Biden voters who are now 2024 Trump voters, and 2. new 2024 Trump voters — those who voted for third parties or did not vote in 2020, but are voting Trump now.

Without a doubt President Biden’s low approval rating, 42%, and high job disapproval, 54%, is fueling President Trump’s advantage in the polls.

The undecided voters do not bode well for Biden either because their job rating for Biden is net negative -32%, approve 24%, disapprove 56%. Without an improvement for Biden these are more likely Trump voters next year.

A change to Vice President Harris would be even worse for Democrats. President Trump leads Kamala Harris 48% to 41%. Kamala Harris is not liked by most Americans with 38% favorable and 53% unfavorable ratings.

"Border czar" Vice President Harris remains impeachment insurance for Joe Biden.

With the most intense base of voter support President Trump leads even when third party candidates are added to the ballot:

-Trump 43%, Biden 38%, Green Party Cornel West 6% and 13% undecided.

-Trump 40%, Biden 36%, No Labels Joe Manchin 6%, Cornel West 4% and 14% undecided.

As national Republican leaders, and former presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Scott Walker have said the primary is over. Trump has won.

It’s really time to end the RNC debates which are nothing more than anti-Trump infomercials that help Joe Biden.

It’s time to focus on beating Joe Biden and ending his reign of failure and corruption before Joe Biden puts his leading Republican opponent in jail — which will end the reason for the opposition Republican Party to exist.

See full McLaughlin September poll results here. 

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.