Since our last national poll, Donald Trump has gone to Iowa, New Hampshire and to court. The most attention Joe Biden received was when he flew back and forth to Israel, where he may be talking tough, while appeasing Hamas and Iran.
The result – President Trump destroys the Republican primary field and widens his lead over Joe Biden.
This national poll of 1,000 likely voters (+/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval), was completed between October 19th and 25th.
In the Republican primary, among all candidates, Donald Trump has his largest lead of the year, +47%, receiving 55% of the vote to Ron DeSantis 8% (way down from 31% in January), Nikki Haley 8%, Vivek Ramaswamy 7%, Mike Pence 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Tim Scott 2%, Larry Elder, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, all received 1% with 10% undecided. After we began the poll, Larry Elder, Perry Johnson and Mike Pence have all ended their campaigns.
In a two-way ballot between President Trump and Ron DeSantis, Trump leads 73% to DeSantis 27%. No undecided.
Most distressing for Ron DeSantis is the serious rise of his negative ratings. In January, among all voters, DeSantis had a favorable to unfavorable rating of 40% favorable to 39% unfavorable. Now DeSantis’ favorable rating among all voters has declined to 34% while his unfavorable rating rose to 51%. This is a big net decrease, -18%.
Among Republican primary voters his favorable rating is only 57%, with a significant share being negative, 29% unfavorable. This makes it very, very hard for Ron DeSantis to prove that he can beat Joe Biden, while Donald Trump is leading.
In a two-way ballot between President Trump and Nikki Haley, Trump leads 75% to Haley 25% with no undecided.
Regarding the Republican debates, that President Trump has yet to attend, it seems to have helped President Trump. Most Republican primary voters would stop the debates, are more focused on seeing President Trump fight the Biden DOJ indictments, and then beat Joe Biden.
When Republican primary voters were asked about the following statement: “Currently Donald Trump is leading in all the Republican primary polls nationally by very big margins of 30, 40 or more points and winning early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina by big margins. Even more important President Trump leads Joe Biden in the national media polls like ABC/Washington Post, CBS, Harvard
Harris and others. It’s time to stop the RNC debates attacking Donald Trump, fight Biden’s political indictments, and rally Republicans behind President Trump so we can start the campaign of beating Joe Biden.”
76% of Republican primary voters agreed and only 16% disagreed.
Among all voters President Trump leads Joe Biden 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Most interesting President Trump receives 27% of the African American vote and 39% among Hispanics. Joe Biden is losing a good portion of his 2020 voting base.
A key reason for President Trump’s lead is that among all voters 70% say the country is on the wrong track. Only 24% say we’re headed in the right direction. Among the undecided voters, 76% say wrong track.
Among all voters President Biden’s job approval is only 43%, while 55% disapprove. Among undecided voters 67% disapprove of Biden.
Vice President Harris does even worse with President Trump at 50% and Harris 42%.
When other potential candidates are included, President Trump still beats Biden:
-Trump 39%, Biden 37%, RFK,jr as an independent 14%, undecided 11%.
-Trump 38%, Biden 35%, RFK,jr 12%, and Cornel West as an independent 2%, undecided 13%
Both Kennedy and West pull more from Biden voters than Trump. Donald Trump keeps the lead because he has the most intense voter base among the two major party candidates.
The galvanization of President Trump’s base of support is a direct result of the Biden DOJ and his Democratic allies indictments of Trump.
-Among all voters 67% say that politics played a role in the indictments against President Trump. Only 25% said politics played no role. Among Republican primary voters 84% said politics played a role.
- Most of all voters, 56%, say that President Biden played a role in the indictments against Trump. Only 34% said Biden played no role.
Among Republican primary voters 81% said Biden played a role.
-Among all voters 49% said that the indictments by the Biden DOJ against President Trump are about stopping him from running for president. Only 38% said no. Among Republican primary voters 79% to 13%, they say that the indictments are about stopping President Trump from running again.
-The majority 58% agree that there is a double standard of justice by the Biden DOJ where they target Donald Trump but go easy on Biden corruption. Only 31% disagree. Republican primary voters agreed 84%-9%.
-The majority of voters 56% agreed that the Biden DOJ should stop interfering with election and let voters decide the election. Only 36% disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed 82%-11%.
As an important footnote this poll was taken while the Republicans were in the process of picking a new Speaker. Disappointing for the Democrats must be the fact that their inside the Beltway attacks on the GOP do not matter to most voters outside the.
The Beltway Republicans still lead the generic ballot for Congress 47%-43%.
As national Republican leaders like Newt Gingrich and Scott Walker have said, the primary is over.
Trump has won the GOP field.
Gingrich and others have called for the RNC to cancel future GOP debates to unify behind Trump to prepare early for 2024. That would be a smart move.
It’s too early to say Trump has won the 2024 election, but his prospects are looking very strong.
Donald Trump as President and a Republican majority in Congress. We have a year to go.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here
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