Except for suburban New York's Nassau County, the hard truth about the 2025 elections is this: millions of Trump voters stayed home — and Republicans lost significantly.
Republican campaigns, super PACs, and nonprofits spent tens of millions of dollars, yet our candidates and our party still fell short.
While many of the 2025 contests were initially favorable to Democrats, that cannot be our excuse.
Lower-turnout, off-year elections offer real opportunities for the party that won the presidency — opportunities we’ve seized before.
In 2002, while working for the RNC, House Speaker, and NRCC Chair, we helped Republicans gain eight House seats and two Senate seats. We had strong candidates, clear messages, and we played offense.
President Trump won the national popular vote in November 2024 with more than 77 million votes — 50% of the 156 million ballots cast.
That is a massive reservoir of supporters who can decide the 2026 midterms.
For context:
—2018 Midterms: 118 million votes cast: 59 million needed for a majority.
—2022 Midterms: 112 million votes cast: 56 million needed for a majority.
If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, the 77 million Trump voters from 2024 should be more than enough.
Yet the early signs show the 75 million Harris voters appear more motivated.
Warning Signs From 2025:
Turnout patterns in key 2025 elections confirm the problem: Trump voters stayed home. Here are races around the nation to look at:
Wisconsin Statewide Election (April 1):
—Conservative Supreme Court candidate: just over 1 million votes out of 2.3 million cast.
—President Trump in 2024: 1.7 million votes out of 3.4 million. Roughly 700,000 Trump voters did not vote this year!
Florida Special Elections:
Florida's 1st Congressional District:
—2025: Republican Jim Petronis wins with 97,000 votes (57%).
—2024: Rep. Matt Gaetz won with 274,000 votes (66%). Again, a large share of Trump voters stayed home!
Florida’s 6th Congressional District:
—2025: Republican Randy Fine wins with 110,000 votes (57%).
—2024: Rep. Michael Waltz won with 284,000 votes (67%). Repeat: significant Trump voters did not turn out.
The 2025 exit polls from key states show that Harris votes came out in much bigger numbers than Trump voters.
Here's some data supporting this view:
—Virginia: Harris 2024 voters = 51% of 2025 electorate; Trump 2024 voters = 41%.
—New Jersey: Harris = 50%; Trump = 42%.
—New York City: Trump received 30% in 2024, but only 25% identified as Trump 2024 voters on 2025 exit polls — while "Never Trump" GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa drew only 7%.
Virginia and New Jersey Governor's Races:
—Virginia: Trump received 2 million votes in 2024. Winsome Earle-Sears received 1.4 million in 2025: 600,000 fewer Trump voters.
—New Jersey: Trump received 2 million votes in 2024. Jack Ciattarelli received 1.4 million in 2025: again, 600,000 fewer Trump voters.
Across the board, Trump’s 2024 voters did not return in 2025!
The One Big Exception: Nassau County:
Nov. 4 delivered one major Republican success story: Nassau County, led by our clients — County Executive Bruce Blakeman, District Attorney Anne Donnelly, and Chairman Joe Cairo.
Using precision polling and targeted communications, Nassau Republicans focused relentlessly on turning out Trump 2024 voters across party lines — Republicans, Democrats, Conservatives, and Independents.
—President Trump won Nassau in 2024 with 364,000 votes: (55%).
—In 2025, Blakeman won with 171,000 votes: 56%–44%.
Despite having 110,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, Nassau GOP candidates swept every major countywide office, town, and city race.
Republicans led Democrats in early voting every single day and again on Election Day.
Independent voters — who broke against Republicans almost everywhere else — broke toward Republicans in Nassau and accounted for 20% of the total vote.
Running With Trump, Not Away:
Blakeman and Nassau Republicans openly aligned with President Trump.
They even transformed the Ryder Cup event into a patriotic, pro-USA celebration that energized local Trump voters.
Polling showed Gov. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., with a 61% disapproval rating in Nassau and radical Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani with 69% unfavorable.
Nassau Republicans invested heavily in tying Democratic opponents to Hochul and Mamdani on crime, taxes, and public safety.
As Chairman Joe Cairo put it, "Despite what happened in Virginia and New Jersey, Long Island bucked the trend."
Blakeman's win also broke a longstanding pattern in Nassau: voters electing a county executive from the opposite party of the sitting president.
The key difference? Nassau Republicans got the Trump base out.
We Know the Trump Coalition — We Helped Build It:
In 2016, when candidate Trump asked, "Hillary’s ahead in every poll. How are we going to win?" we laid out the plan:
- Maximize the anti-Obama, anti-Hillary Republican vote.
- Pull libertarian-leaning Independents away from Gary Johnson.
- Bring out new working-class voters who had stayed home in 2012.
That formula worked.
It created a new "Heartland" Trump coalition across the Sun Belt and Rust Belt — a blue-collar movement behind a "blue-collar billionaire."
In 2024, we expanded that coalition by attracting more Hispanics, African Americans, young voters, Catholics, and Jewish voters — many of whom voted for Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump in 2024, along with new voters.
2026 — The Task Ahead:
On election night 2025, President Trump posted on Truth Social: "Trump wasn’t on the ballot."
And he won't be in 2026. But his voters must show up again.
The same strategy we used in 2023-24 to improve Trump's job approval and turn that into votes can be replicated for 2026.
We can contrast Trump's successful record with the Schumer-Jeffries-Mamdani agenda just as effectively as we did with Biden–Harris.
The Path Forward:
The formula is proven:
—Turn out the Trump 2024 voters.
—Contrast our record with the Democratic radicals.
—Use the Nassau County model.
The Bruce Blakeman strategy in Nassau County worked – embrace Trump, turn out Trump voters and win! It can work nationwide in 2026 if the GOP has the guts to do it.
(See also: www.McLaughlinonline.com)
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.