The fall of the tyrannical family of Assad is a tremendous and positive change in the Mideast, not only for Syrians. The fall of the Assad dynasty has sent ripples throughout the region.
Large swaths of the Mideast are now quaking.
Their future, too, is uncertain.
Those hoping for a new Syria, a Syria that mimics Switzerland or Luxemburg, simply don'tundersta nd the dynamics of the region.
Those who ousted Bashar Assad were notorious terrorists.
For example, Jolani, the leader of the largest terror group that ousted Assad, had a very large $10 million bounty on his head.
It was placed there by the U.S. government, Jolani was a most wanted terrorist.
In an effort to whitewash his reputation, Jolani is now going by a different name.
Unsurprisingly, the United States has put the bounty on hold.
Libya understands what happens when a leader is ousted.
After the Libyans ousted Muammar Gaddafi, a pseudo democratic government was set-up.
That government was quickly overrun.
It became a new tribal military dictatorship. It's difficult to evaluate whether Libya is better or worse off today than it was before the fall of Gaddafi.
Today, Libya has become home to many terrorists.
What happened in Libya may be the most likely scenario for the future of Syria.
Egypt, too, is worried.
While Egypt maintains a very firm and fierce hold on the many Islamic extremist who want to overthrow the current Abdel Fattah el-Sisi government, Egyptians know how fragile their leadership can be.
Remember, this current government came into place by overthrowing Muhammed Morsi who had been democratically elected in 2012.
Morsi was the political leader of the Islamists in Egypt.
Morsi was in power for just one year and three days before being ousted in a coup in 2013.
And the Islamists of Egypt know that the Islamists of Syrian were sending out a message: if Syria’s Islamists could overthrow Assad, Egyptian Islamists can overthrow al-Sisi.
Even more worried is Jordan.
Jordan shares a border with Syria, as does Israel.
There's a single point where all three countries converge at the Yabuk River. That convergence sits at the foot of the Golan Heights and the beginning of the Jordan Valley.
Jordanian leadership is petrified that their Islamists, the Islamists in Jordan, will act on the Syrian message. Jordan is a more complicated country than Syria and Egypt. Jordan is a monarchy.
Since it was established in 1946, there have only been four kings of Jordan. One king, King Talal, served only for 13 months and 22 days, in 1952-53, before abdicating.
So, while there appears to be great stability in Jordan, it's a real monarchy with all that a monarchy entails.
The ruling Jordanian royal family is not actually from Jordan. They are Hashemites, Bedouins from Arabia, relatives of the royal family of Saudi Arabia.
As much as 80% of Jordan is composed of Palestinians. At most, 10% are Bedouins and loyal to the Monarchy. And then there is the royal family — a true minority in the country they rule.
It is for this very reason that Jordan hides, or significantly deflates, the true number of Palestinians in their country.
There are about 11 million people in Jordan and, as of 2016, the official number of Palestinians is about 3 million.
Most good guestimates, however, put the number of Palestinians living in Jordan at way over six million and even as many as eight million.
For good reason, Israel is invested in keeping Jordan stable and the monarchy in place.
That’s why Israel’s director of the Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, recently met with Jordanian security leaders.
The Shin Bet is Israel’s internal security division, it's also responsible for handling the West Bank and Gaza.
Present at the meeting were senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officers.
Representing Jordan was the director of the Jordanian general intelligence service, Ahmad Husni, as well as Jordanian military commanders.
This meeting was reported first by Axios, quoting Israeli officials, and then throughout the Israeli press.
In 1994 Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty somewhere in the dessert between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Jordanian King Hussein and U.S. President Bill Clinton signed the treaty.
I was there. It was uplifting. It was inspirational.
Israel and Jordan share a border that is almost 200 miles long.
There are three major land crossings, bridges into Jordan over the Jordan River.
There are also flights from Tel Aviv, Israel to Aman, Jordan every single day.
A large worry for Jordan is that weapons and drugs are piercing their border and may lead to unrest and even to a revolt.
Israel and the United States are committed to supporting the Jordanian monarchy.
Not because they support kingships, but because Israel and the United States need stability in the region.
This Jordanian monarchy is in lock step with Israel and the United States.
They reject Islamist regimes which pose terrible danger to Jordan and to the region.
There is good reason for fear what is threatening to become a very unstable Mideast.
Micah Halpern is a political and foreign affairs commentator. He founded "The Micah Report" and hosts "Thinking Out Loud with Micah Halpern," a weekly TV program, and "My Chopp," a daily radio spot. Follow him on Twitter @MicahHalpern. Read Micah Halpern's Reports — More Here.
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