An analysis from I&I and TIPP finds former President Donald Trump has a 36-point lead on the GOP primary field, and they conclude it to be "insuperable" and "insurmountable."
"Trump's edge, when it comes to his own party, again appears insurmountable at this early stage of the nominating process," the pollster memo by Issues & Insights read Monday, one week after it hailed being declared America's most accurate national pollster.
Trump draws a 55% majority of 2024 registered Republican voters and independents who lean Republican nationwide:
- Trump: 55% (plus-36)
- DeSantis: 19%
- Former Vice President Mike Pence: 6%
- Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley: 3%
- Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.: 3%
- Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy: 2%
- New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu: 2%
While this is a nationwide poll, and the Republican Party primary is decided by delegates and not the U.S. GOP popular vote, the Race to the White House produces a delegate projection and it's heavily in Trump's favor.
Trump leads with 1,862 delegates in the full field. Just 1,234 are needed to win, Florida Politics reported.
Assuming DeSantis can root out the field by the Nevada primary, DeSantis (484 delegates) is in even more trouble against Trump (1,971) in the projections, according to the report.
Notably, the I&I/TIPP poll did not include an accurate reflection of the field, as Sununu is no longer in the race and never entered. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is among the candidates even further back.
The poll was closed June 2, long before the news of Trump's indictment came last week.
Insights & Issues and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics conducted the nationwide poll of 1,230 voters May 31 to June 2. Among those was a subset of 482 registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. The margin of error for the GOP subset is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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