Virginia's gubernatorial race has tightened but still favors Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 51% to 41%, according to a new Roanoke College poll conducted Oct. 22-27.
The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, suggests that Earle-Sears' historic bid to become the nation's first Black woman governor remains within striking distance but faces headwinds as Election Day nears.
Earle-Sears, the first Black woman to win statewide office in Virginia, is also the first Black Republican woman ever nominated for governor by a major party.
The Jamaican-born Marine Corps veteran has built her campaign around faith, family, and the promise of legal immigration, tying her story to both the civil rights era of the 1950s and ’60s and modern conservative values.
"My dad came to America with only $1.75 at the height of the civil rights movement, 17 days before Dr. [Martin Luther] King gave his 'I Have a Dream' speech, and here I am, now second in command in the former capital of the Confederate states," she told Fox News earlier this month.
Her message seeks to expand the GOP's appeal to voters of color and immigrants while pushing back on Democrats' narratives about identity.
"Here come the Democrats ... always the race card," she said. "You said you care about Black people, well, here I am. You said you care about women, well, here I am. You said you care about immigrants, here I am."
The survey highlights sharp partisan alignment: 92% of Republicans support Earle-Sears, while 98% of Democrats back Spanberger. Independents lean Democratic by a 55%-32% margin.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin's approval stands at 50% statewide, while Earle-Sears' favorability has risen to 38%, up 6 points since May. Spanberger's favorability is 47%, with 42% viewing her unfavorably.
This, while President Donald Trump's job approval among Virginians has climbed to 40%, his highest in more than a year, indicates improving Republican enthusiasm.
The top issues dividing Virginians underscore the ideological gap between the candidates.
Among Spanberger supporters, 48% cite "threats to democracy" as their chief concern, compared with just 7% of Earle-Sears voters.
By contrast, 24% of Earle-Sears backers name immigration as their most important issue, followed by inflation and the cost of living at 22%.
Statewide, 67% of voters describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about casting a ballot, a sign of high engagement.
If elected, Earle-Sears would make history as the first Black woman and naturalized immigrant to lead a U.S. state.
Her campaign has drawn national attention from conservatives who see her rise as evidence of a diversifying Republican coalition.
"Simply breaking this milestone, and in her case, it's multiple, challenges the notion that it's impossible," said Kelly Dittmar of the Center for American Women and Politics.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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