Environmental change in the Arctic is making Greenland more valuable, and more contested, as President Donald Trump presses a campaign to secure U.S. control of the Danish autonomous territory.
Meanwhile, allied governments are warning against coercion inside NATO.
Scientists say the Arctic is warming far faster than the rest of the world, accelerating the decline of sea ice that has historically limited access to shipping lanes, resources, and military movement.
A 2022 peer-reviewed study in Nature Communications Earth & Environment concluded that the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe since 1979.
That physical shift is central to Greenland’s rising strategic profile.
"It’s partly the melting of sea ice making it more attractive for the economic development that he’d pursue in Greenland," said Sherri Goodman, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and the former deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security.
Trump has argued Greenland is vital because of its strategic location and mineral deposits, while Greenland and Denmark have rejected any sale.
Economic access is expanding unevenly, but it is expanding.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Arctic Report Card for 2023 reported that by late August, both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage were open for non-ice-hardened ship traffic, underscoring how seasonal windows can widen even when routes remain hazardous.
Longer open-water periods are also projected.
A 2021 study in Nature Communications Earth & Environment found the open-water period lengthens by 63 days on average with 2 degrees Celsius of global warming above the 1850-1900 average, and that nearly the entire Arctic has at least three months of open water per year with 3.5 degrees of warming.
Analysts say the shifting map of access is now colliding with hard-power politics.
"The freeing of the Arctic from sea ice, at least seasonally, will create an entirely new theater for economic and security competition," said Joseph Majkut, the director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"And while we’ve known that is going to be the case for some time, it seems we’re at an inflection point."
The same trends that draw interest also raise risk.
"It could become more hazardous for ships to go into these areas rather than less," said Zack Labe, a climate scientist who studies regional climate risks, pointing to high winds, waves, and limited ports and emergency response capacity.
Against that backdrop, Trump has escalated pressure on European allies.
Reuters reported that, in a mostly symbolic gesture, France, Germany, Britain, and other European countries sent a few troops to Greenland at Denmark’s request, prompting Trump to threaten to increase trade tariffs on eight European allies until the United States is allowed to buy the island.
European officials have argued that U.S. security goals do not require ownership of Greenland, while Trump has kept pressure on allies and has not ruled out more drastic steps, including the use of military force.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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