Former President Barack Obama is mounting a weekend campaign push in New Jersey and Virginia aimed at energizing Democratic turnout ahead of key off-year elections that could serve as a barometer for the party's prospects under President Donald Trump's second term.
Obama will campaign Saturday alongside Democratic gubernatorial nominees Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, in what party strategists describe as a turnout-rather-than-persuasion effort in races that may signal broader national sentiment.
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, who advised past senatorial campaigns, said, "These 2025 off-year elections ... are more about turnout than it is about persuasion" and noted that Obama "does not hurt anything because you're trying to remind people and motivate the base to go vote."
Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, is running in Virginia to succeed outgoing GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. In New Jersey, Sherrill seeks to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, facing Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, endorsed by President Trump.
For Democrats, victories in these contests would offer a much-needed boost after last year's poor performance when Republicans captured the White House and held both the House and Senate. The party has also relied increasingly on state governors to exercise influence in a period of diminished federal power.
Obama's involvement underscores his enduring popularity among Democratic voters. A Gallup poll published earlier this year placed his approval rating at 59%, the highest among all living former presidents.
Still, some Democratic strategists caution that Obama's political muscle may be fading.
As one strategist put it: "The more we move away from the Obama presidency, the less muscle he has to push." That strategist pointed to the 2024 cycle, where Obama-endorsed candidates failed to win despite his marquee rallies.
Republicans, meanwhile, are campaigning aggressively in both states but without the same high-profile former figure offering direct support this weekend. The outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey will be watched closely as indicators of national momentum a year ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In addition to the gubernatorial contests, a ballot measure in California backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that could shift up to five U.S. House seats to Democrats is also drawing attention as part of the broader electoral landscape. Obama has lent support to that campaign as well, according to Fox News.
For Democrats, the message is clear: mobilizing the base ahead of what many view as a potential turning point. For Republicans, the tests in these states will help assess whether the party's strength under a second Trump term is holding.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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