A new Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics survey found Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., leading the early field in the state's 2026 governor primary, though a large share of voters remains undecided.
The poll showed Swalwell with 17% support in the open primary, followed by Republican Steve Hilton with 13%, Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco each with 11%, and Katie Porter with 8%. About 25% of voters said they remain undecided.
"Rep. Swalwell's support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, along with Tom Steyer, whose support among this group also increased from 12% to 16%," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Kimball said independent voters remain largely undecided, with 39% saying they have not chosen a candidate. Among independents, 12% support Swalwell and 12% support Hilton.
Republican voters in the survey are split between Hilton at 38% and Bianco at 34%.
The poll also measured job approval ratings for several contenders.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a 45% approval rating among likely voters, while 40% disapprove of the job he is doing.
President Donald Trump holds a 28% approval rating among California voters, with 64% disapproving.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass holds a 24% approval rating among Los Angeles voters, while 47% disapprove.
The survey found voters divided on the direction of the state.
Statewide, 48% of voters said California is heading in the right direction, while 52% believe the state is on the wrong track. Los Angeles voters were evenly split, with 50% saying the state is moving in the right direction and 50% saying it is on the wrong track.
Asked about the most important issues facing California, 37% of voters cited the economy, followed by housing affordability at 22%, threats to democracy at 11%, immigration at 8%, and healthcare at 7%.
Homelessness also remains a concern among voters. A majority of respondents (53%) said the issue is getting worse, while 33% said it is staying the same and 15% believe it is improving.
The poll also asked voters how they want the next governor to approach relations with the Trump administration.
A majority of voters, 64%, said they want the next governor to stand up to the administration, while 36% said they would prefer the governor to work with it.
Among voters who prefer cooperation with the Trump administration, 36% support Hilton and 31% support Bianco.
Among voters who prefer the next governor stand up to the administration, 25% support Swalwell, 15% support Steyer, and 12% support Porter.
The Emerson College survey of 1,000 California likely voters was conducted March 7-9, with a credibility interval of 3 percentage points. A subset of 350 Los Angeles likely voters was also surveyed, with a credibility interval of 5.2%.
Jim Mishler ✉
Jim Mishler, a seasoned reporter, anchor and news director, has decades of experience covering crime, politics and environmental issues.
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