Former CNN Editor: Senate Map 'Very Good' for Republicans

Republicans have a big advantage when it comes to this year's Senate map, according to a former CNN editor-at-large.

In his analysis of the 2024 Senate races, Chris Cillizza, who worked at CNN from 2017 to 2022 and now runs his own Substack and YouTube channel, said Republicans have a very good shot at flipping the upper chamber. Democrats currently hold a two-seat advantage. Of the 34 Senate seats up for vote, 23 are held by people aligned with Democrats, while only 11 are held by Republicans.

Three of those seats are held in states that are expected to vote for Trump this year, while there are no Republican seats up for re-election in states Biden won in 2020.

If former President Donald Trump is re-elected, Republicans need to only flip one seat, since the vice president breaks ties in the senate.

In deep-red West Virginia, Joe Manchin, a Democrat who recently turned independent, is not running for re-election, and his seat is almost certain to flip Republican, Cillizza said. Gov. Jim Justice is running on the Republican ticket.

"That seat is basically gone," Cillizza said. "That seat is going to go Republican. If Trump wins, Republicans probably have control of the Senate under that scenario."

In Ohio, Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for a third term. A populist, well liked by Ohio voters who wins lower- and middle-class whites, Brown faces an uphill battle against Republican Bernie Moreno in a state Trump won by 8 points in 2020, Cillizza said.

"That could make it hard for Sherrod Brown and Moreno would benefit from that," Cillizza said. "If we have a totally neutral environment, Sherrod Brown might win."

Montana Sen. Jon Tester has his hardest race ever, Cillizza said, running for a fourth term in a state where Trump is expected to win easily. Tester's opponent, Tim Sheehy is a wealthy businessman recruited by Republicans.

"Tester has to overperform Joe Biden by double digits," Cillizza said. "[Sheehy] looks to be a pretty solid candidate. Definitely Tester's toughest race."

Even though Nevada went for Biden in 2020, Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen, running for a second term, faces a difficult re-election campaign. Rosen is running in a state with a struggling economy and is not well known statewide, Cillizza said.

"Biden is not running well there," Cillizza said. "If Trump wins Nevada by four points, my guess is Jacky Rosen loses. If it's really, really, close, Jackie Rosen might win. If Biden wins by two or three, Jacky Rosen will win."

Cillizza said Democrats also must worry about defending seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Of the 11 Republican seats up for re-election, none are as worrisome to the GOP as the eight vulnerable Democratic seats are, Cillizza said.

While Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. could be vulnerable, Cillizza said he expects neither to lose re-election.

"I think there's a 70% chance Republicans control the Senate in 2025," Cillizza said. "If Democrats do, it is remarkable."

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