Vice President Kamala Harris pulled ahead of Donald Trump in five of seven battleground states since replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat presidential ticket last month, according to a survey from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released Wednesday.
In Cook's May survey, Biden trailed his Republican opponent in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, and they were tied in Wisconsin. But Harris now leads in all but Georgia, where they are tied, and Nevada, where Trump's eight-point lead in May has been sliced to five.
The results include independent and third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein. In a head-to-head matchup, Harris is leading the same states, but her margins are narrower.
The survey of 2,867 likely voters in the seven battleground states was taken July 26 to Aug. 1 and has a margin of error of 1.83 percentage points.
In Cook's Electoral College projections, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are listed as toss-up states, and North Carolina as "lean Republican." Last month, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada were classified as "lean Republican."
"Harris' success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters," wrote Cook's Amy Walter. "In May, in the five-way horse race including third-party candidates, just 82% of the voters who supported Biden in 2020 were committed to voting for him this fall. Harris is getting 91% of those voters.
"Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 48% to 40% in the head-to-head. In May, Trump led Biden among independent voters by three points (41% to 38%)."
Trump still has sizable leads over Harris on key election issues, such as the border and immigration (53% to 39%), getting the cost of living and inflation under control (48% to 42%), dealing with the economy (50% to 45%), crime and violence (48% to 44%), and dealing with foreign policy, crisis and wars (48% to 44%). Harris holds big edges on dealing with abortion (54% to 35%) and healthcare (51% to 38%) and protecting Social Security and Medicare (50% to 39%).
"For months, Trump enjoyed almost universal support among his base, while Biden was struggling to hold onto his 2020 voters," Walter wrote. "Harris has consolidated those former Biden voters, which has, in turn, leveled the political playing field. That means that the fight this fall will be centered on winning over those voters who have not yet committed to either candidate.
"Some of them are conflicted about which candidate would best address their most salient issues. Others are not yet paying much attention to the contest. Another chunk is thinking of supporting RFK Jr., but could be swayed to support one of the major party candidates. And, given the fact that RFK Jr. will appear on only a handful of state ballots, many of those voters who are currently interested in supporting RFK Jr. may not get the opportunity to do so."
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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