Newsmax election partner Decision Desk HQ said former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the presidential election, giving him a 53% chance, but said in a recent report that the "outcome is effectively a toss-up."
In its report, the company predictions show Trump receiving 235 Electoral College votes and Democrat challenger Vice President Kamala Harris with 226.
However, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available votes, distributed throughout the 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to population. In Nebraska and Maine, two electoral votes are awarded to the statewide popular vote winner, with the remaining votes distributed according to winners in each congressional district.
The report, comparing polling averages in five of six "toss-up" states, showed Trump with a narrow lead in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with Harris slightly ahead in Michigan.
Polling averages in the swing states have trended toward Trump in recent weeks, but remained within the polls' margins of error, DDHQ reported.
Meanwhile, Politico Playbook reported Tuesday that while DDHQ has tagged Trump, other pollsters and predictors are forecasting a slight victory for Harris.
The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston predicted Harris will squeak out a win in Nevada by just 0.3 points.
Sabato's Crystal Ball said, "It would not be a surprise if either candidate won," and FiveThirtyEight says Harris will defeat Trump by 50% to 49%.
The Economist said Tuesday that Harris "moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%."
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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