Some criticized Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris' choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, believing Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a better alternative.
Those critics could be proved right as a poll released Monday showed that Republican former President Donald Trump has sliced into Harris' lead in Minnesota, a state where a GOP presidential candidate has not won since Richard Nixon in 1972.
The Minnesota Post/Embold Research poll of 1,734 likely voters conducted Oct. 16-22 showed Harris with a 47.7%-45.1% lead over Trump, just outside the margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. In the publication's September poll, Harris had a lead of 4.2 percentage points (48.8%-46.6%).
The poll showed Trump with a 36%-27% lead among independents, with another 24% saying they preferred "another candidate."
"We've got a very tight race here," Steven Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota, told the Post.
The poll detected a significant change in the favorability ratings of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump's running mate. In September, his favorability differential was minus-17 points, meaning 51.7% of respondents had a "very unfavorable" or "somewhat unfavorable" view of him than the 34.7% who had a favorable view.
But that favorability differential was cut in half — to minus-8.1 points — with 49.2% of respondents having a "very unfavorable" or "somewhat unfavorable" view of him versus 41.1% who had a favorable view.
Embold Research pollster Jessica Mason told the Post the surge in Vance's popularity was attributable, in part, to his debate with Walz on Oct. 1. Mason said the debate, which was characterized by its civility, "put Vance's face in front of voters" and introduced him to the nation in a positive way.
Like in most polls nationwide, Harris has considerable edge among women voters and Trump among men. In the Post poll, Harris is up by 12.8 percentage points (53.2%-40.4%) with women and Trump by 11.3 points (51.6%-40.3%) with men.
A greater divide is how voters geographically see the candidates. In greater Minnesota, respondents overwhelmingly support Trump by a 64%-31% margin. But in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Harris was favored 69%-20%. In the seven-county metro area excluding Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Harris had a 48%-45% lead over Trump.
The Post reported that 19% of respondents said they already voted — with 70% saying they cast their ballot for Harris with 27% saying they voted for Trump.
Schier said the strong early vote for Harris means "you're banking your vote early and you don't have to depend on weather and turnout on Election Day – and that's a big advantage."
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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