Former President Donald Trump is showing signs of resurgence in his bid for a second term, as Vice President Kamala Harris faces a dwindling lead in critical battleground states, raising concerns among Democrats just weeks before the election, The Hill reported.
With the 2024 presidential election fast approaching, Trump is seeing an uptick in his chances for a second term, while Harris' early momentum appears to be waning. According to the latest election forecast by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris' chances of victory on Nov. 5 have dropped to 51%, down from 56% in late September.
In key battleground states, Trump now leads in five out of seven, reversing the 4-3 edge Harris held earlier in October. Polls show tight margins, making it difficult to predict a clear winner. While national polls still favor Harris, with a 2.9-point advantage, the real challenge lies in the Electoral College, where battleground states could determine the outcome, as seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Concerns among Democrats are growing as Trump's recent gains have shifted the political landscape. Harris' national advantage might not be enough to secure victory, especially given the narrow polling margins in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where she has recently lost ground. In Michigan, she had a 2-point lead in mid-August; in Wisconsin, she held a nearly 5-point advantage in late August. Both states now lean toward Trump, adding to the unease among her supporters.
Several factors could influence the election's outcome. Polling accuracy has been questioned, particularly after misses in previous elections. Additionally, significant issues like abortion, which favors Harris, and immigration, a key Trump talking point, could drive voter turnout. However, the polls also offer only a snapshot, and with weeks remaining until Election Day, new developments could still sway public opinion.
Harris, who has led in national polls since President Joe Biden stepped aside, remains under pressure to maintain her visibility. Over the past week, she has increased her media appearances, including interviews on CBS's "60 Minutes" and ABC's "The View," along with a town hall event with Univision. While her media presence has been steady, some moments, particularly evasive answers during the "60 Minutes" interview, have led to criticism from opponents.
However, even in friendly settings, her failure to conclusively show how she differentiates herself from Biden has caused her to face pushback, with critics quick to seize on any perceived missteps.
Meanwhile, while former President Barack Obama campaigned in Pittsburgh, he suggested that sexism may be hindering Black male voter turnout for Harris, an opinion that has sparked controversy in the Democratic Party.
Despite these challenges, Harris' fundraising remains a bright spot for her campaign. She has raised over $1 billion, significantly outpacing Trump's efforts. However, the high expenditure rate, with her campaign spending $7.5 million per day in August compared to Trump's $2.6 million, may show that the Republican platform speaks to voters more than the advertising dollar.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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