Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 5.1 percentage points in Electoral College projections, says pollster Nate Silver's election forecast.
Harris is leading Trump by 3.8 points based on the updated Silver Bulletin's national polling tracker for the popular vote, but she has fallen to a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4% for Trump, "because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after" the Democratic National Convention, he wrote Thursday.
"It assumes Harris's polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump's numbers were inflated after the [Republican National Convention]."
The news was not all good for Trump, however. "The good news for Harris is that if she merely holds her current numbers for a couple more weeks, she'll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she's out of the convention bounce period," he added.
Harris has gained ground against Trump in national polls and those in critical swing states since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in late July.
Since formally accepting the Democrats' nomination last week, Harris has embarked on a tour of battleground states including Georgia, where Biden had been hemorrhaging support before he ended his campaign.
Solange Reyner ✉
Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.
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