Election Models Stress Importance of Trump-Harris Debate

Two presidential election models suggesting different results indicate one common message: The upcoming debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could be pivotal.

Trump has a 60% chance of winning the election in November, according to pollster Nate Silver's model.

Harris rates a 55% chance of winning, according to the latest forecast model from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

Despite the difference, both models show just how close the race is and that either candidate can win. That's especially true with seven battleground states up for grabs.

"Statistically speaking Silver's model is not an 'outlier' — to the general public we can understand how they might view his model as markedly different — in reality he is giving an ever-so-slight edge to Trump where we are giving an ever-so-slight edge to Harris," Decision Desk HQ's Scott Tranter said.

"There is a lot of mathematical reasons for this, but [it] is a foreshadowing of what the next few weeks will be like as we go down the stretch."

Tranter said Silver's model includes a few additional factors that Decision Desk HQ's model does not.

"We both cook a pretty good steak," Tranter said. "He has a few more ingredients that we choose not to do."

Silver's model includes momentum and an adjustment for polls taken during or immediately after the Democratic National Convention.

Nevertheless, the two models indicate the race is a toss-up as Trump and Harris prepare for their ABC News debate on Tuesday.

"I would put this debate as high as stakes as the one we saw [between Biden and Trump]," Tranter said.

According to Tranter, the presidential race is "as close as" it has been this century, and perhaps since John F. Kennedy's victory over Richard Nixon in 1960 or Harry Truman's win against Thomas Dewey in 1948.

Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows Harris with about a 4-point lead overall but with smaller leads or is tied in each of the seven main swing states.

The vice president is ahead by about 3.5 points in Wisconsin, the only state where either candidate has a lead of more than 2 points.

Harris is up about 1.5 points in Michigan and less than a point in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.

The candidates are about even in Arizona and North Carolina, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.

• McLaughlin Poll: Trump Leads Harris by 2 Points
• CNN Poll: 15 Percent of Swing-State Voters Undecided