Russia, Iran, China Could Stoke Post-election Violence: US Intel

Russia, China and Iran are intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. elections and may consider fomenting violence after voters go to the polls, U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday.

The officials, briefing reporters on U.S. election security, said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence, and are highly likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.

"Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans' confidence in the U.S. democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve," said one official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

That official said influence actors, "particularly from Russia, Iran and China," have learned from previous U.S. elections and are better prepared to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.

Those actors could draw on the same type of tools they have been using in the pre-election period - especially information and cyber operations - and may also consider physical threats and violence, the ODNI official added.

But U.S. intelligence has not seen collaboration between Russia, China and Iran in election influence activities, the officials said. And, while foreign actors might seek to disrupt the process on Election Day, feeding discontent, the voting system is secure enough that they could not alter the outcome.

"Some foreign actors also have the capacity to stoke protests and take violent actions during this (post-election) period," the ODNI official said. "In particular, Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence."

A declassified memorandum released after the briefing by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) - the top U.S. intelligence analytical body - warned that foreign operatives almost certainly will amplify false post-vote claims of election irregularities.

They also may use cyber attacks and espionage to disrupt or alter news and public government websites to promote confusion about the results and spread disinformation about the ballot-counting process, especially in races that are too close to call, the NIC said.

The U.S. presidential race is expected to be tight. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 46% to 43% lead over Republican former President Donald Trump.

China has no intention of interfering in the election and hopes that whoever wins "will be committed to growing sound and stable China-U.S. ties," a Chinese embassy spokesperson said in an email.

The Russian embassy and Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Russia and Iran previously have denied U.S. election-meddling allegations.

USING AI

The ODNI official said foreign actors were using social media and other online operations to influence U.S. presidential and congressional races, to denigrate some candidates or support others.

Some social media posts are likely to be generated by artificial intelligence, said that official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.

As an example, the ODNI official pointed to a post on social media platform X this month generated by what he called Russian influence actors that made a false allegation against Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who is Harris' vice presidential running mate.

Intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content, the ODNI official said. A media review by the agencies showed "several indicators of manipulation" consistent with the actions of Russian actors, the official said.

That official said U.S. intelligence concluded last weekend that the video was fake and the product of disinformation operatives, adding that it was consistent with ongoing Russian efforts to undermine the Democratic presidential ticket by fabricating allegations against Harris and Walz.

U.S. intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer that Trump retake the White House.

At Tuesday's briefing for reporters, intelligence officials said they expected more Russian amplification of protests if Harris wins the election.

"Russia would prefer the former president to win and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris)," the ODNI official said.

The NIC said "Iranian actors" may try to publish online content disparaging Trump.