Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight.com gives Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump a 39% chance of winning the election over Democrat Kamala Harris — a new low for the former president.
Tuesday's simulations are the first time that Trump has dropped below 40%, Newsweek reported. FiveThirtyEight had Trump at a 41% chance of winning when the model relaunched after Harris became a candidate.
The forecaster gave Harris a 61% chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight listed nine recent national polls that were "influencing the forecast," and eight of those have Harris leading. The outlier among them was a Big Village survey that showed Harris with an 8-point lead over Trump.
Nate Silver, the erstwhile owner and analyst of FiveThirtyEight.com, showed Harris leading Trump 48.5% to 46.3% in his latest projection released Monday. The RealClearPolitics polling average showed Harris leading Trump 49.1% to 47.3% on Tuesday.
FiveThirtyEight's new modeling comes one week after a debate between Harris and Trump. Almost all — 8 of 9 — of the polls referenced by FiveThirtyEight began their surveys the day after the Sept. 10 debate, with the results ostensibly reflecting a bump for Harris on the other side, according to the report.
However, pollster John McLaughlin told Newsmax on Sunday that "nothing really changed" in the polls after the debate.
McLaughlin echoed the analysis of pollster John Zogby, who told Newsmax the same thing on Saturday.
Zogby, when asked if Harris would experience a post-debate bump, said, "No, I don't. I think the era of big bumps is over. Frankly, so many voters are locked in, and so many are undecided."
Mark Swanson ✉
Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.
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