Germany's military and political establishment is quietly preparing for what it now openly warns could be the gravest threat to Europe since the Cold War: a potential Russian attack on NATO by 2029.
The assessment, revealed in a detailed Wall Street Journal report, underscores how profoundly Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine shattered Europe's decades-long confidence in stability and exposed the continent's chronic neglect of defense.
Two and a half years ago, a dozen senior German officers gathered inside Berlin's understated Julius Leber Barracks to draft a classified 1,200-page war plan known as Operation Plan Germany, or OPLAN DEU.
Today, with Russian aggression escalating, that plan is no longer theoretical. Germany is racing to implement it.
At the core of OPLAN DEU lies a massive logistical blueprint to mobilize up to 800,000 German, U.S., and NATO troops across Germany toward a potential eastern front.
With the Alps blocking southern routes, Germany would become the indispensable transit hub for any NATO defense of Europe.
The plan outlines everything from ports and rail lines to convoy protection, drone surveillance, fuel stations, and even traffic-light modifications.
German officials warn that Russia could be ready to strike NATO territory in as little as five years — but a wave of sabotage, espionage, and airspace intrusions across Europe suggests Moscow may be preparing sooner.
Conservative analysts note that such warnings echo NATO's repeated calls, long dismissed by European leaders, to take the Russian threat seriously.
The report highlights Germany's stark vulnerabilities after decades of disarmament. Infrastructure is crumbling — more than 20% of highways and more than a quarter of bridges need repair, and many Cold War-era dual-use structures have been allowed to decay.
Key ports rely on single rail links, leaving them dangerously exposed.
A single cargo-ship collision this year severed NATO's main rail route for ammunition to Ukraine for weeks, forcing the U.S. to reroute shipments.
Exercises to test Germany's readiness have exposed additional flaws.
In a September drill in Hamburg, a NATO convoy was stalled for hours because police lacked the materials to remove protesters — highlighting peacetime regulations that make military movement nearly impossible in a crisis.
Drone laws are so outdated that German military drones must fly with position lights, defeating their combat purpose.
Critics on the right say these failures reflect years of complacency under Berlin's left-leaning governments, which cut defense spending, dismantled conscription, and prioritized environmental projects over national security.
Only after Russia's invasion did Germany approve a €100 billion rearmament fund — still far below what military leaders say is needed.
Defense experts warn that Western hesitation on Ukraine could further embolden Russia.
A potential U.S.-backed armistice, analysts note, may simply give Russian President Vladimir Putin time to regroup and shift his attention westward.
Still, the architects of OPLAN DEU insist that visible preparedness remains the strongest deterrent.
"The goal is to prevent war," one senior officer told the Journal, "by making it clear to our enemies that if they attack us, they won't be successful."
Yet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a sobering assessment: "We're not at war," he said recently. "But we no longer live in peacetime."
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