October surprises have a history of upending presidential elections, from the revelation of George W. Bush's DWI arrest in 2000 to Donald Trump's infamous Access Hollywood tape in 2016.
The Access Hollywood tape showed how potential new audio or video could upend a presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris could face trouble if audio or video of her talking about how her past positions like supporting a ban of fracking surfaces, The Hill reported, while former President Donald Trump has faced attacks from the Harris campaign for promising wealthy donors a tax cut if elected.
The unpredictable nature of weather could change the shape of the race. Barack Obama got a boost for his handling of Superstorm Sandy in 2012, getting a hug from then-New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie.
Hurricane Helene forced Harris to suspend in-person campaigning to return to Washington, D.C., to be briefed on the storm while Trump visited Georgia where he criticized the federal government's response to the storm. Harris and President Joe Biden are expected to visit areas affected by the storm.
The 2024 presidential election has seen Trump face two assassination attempts, including being grazed by a bullet while speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania. NBC News reported last month the FBI was investigating after election officials in six states received suspicious packages.
"I'm most concerned about vote-counting and election judges and violence. There's been a pretty clear pattern of threats about who gets to count votes," John Murphy, a professor at the University of Illinois who studies political rhetoric, told The Hill.
Another presidential debate could also change the shape of the race. The debate between Biden and Trump led to Biden dropping out of the race, while Harris was widely viewed to have bested Trump in their only debate. Trump has refused another debate, saying it would be too late, with early voting well underway in many states.
Vice presidential candidates Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, will be debating on Tuesday.
The continued turmoil in the Middle East looms over the presidential campaign. Next week marks a year since Hamas attacked Israel and Israel recently launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, while US officials believe Iran is preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel.
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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