Despite efforts to flip traditionally red Texas and blue Virginia, neither presidential candidate has been able to move the needle in states they wanted to turn in 2024, according to a new survey released Thursday by Emerson College Polling/The Hill.
Once seen as possibly drifting into purple territory, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% in Texas. The 5 percentage point lead marks a one-point increase since the poll was last taken in early September. The survey also saw current Senator Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 49% to 45%.
"Hispanic voters in Texas break for Harris 54% to 41%, and black voters 87% to 8%, while white voters break for Trump, 64% to 33%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Among Hispanic voters, Harris has more support among women, with 62%, than men, 46%. The overall gender divide finds women break for Harris by six while men break for Trump by 19."
Likewise with Virginia, which is currently governed by a Republican, hopes of Trump flipping the commonwealth are fading with the former president trailing Harris 52% to 44%. The big takeaway in Virginia was the breaking of women for Harris. When President Biden was the nominee, Trump enjoyed a 2-percentage point lead at 45% to 43% the last time the poll was taken in July. The latest poll shows a 20-point lead for Harris at 58% to 38% among women in Virginia.
"Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 68% to 30%, while voters who say housing affordability is the top issue facing Virginia break for Harris, 76% to 15%," Kimball added.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll was taken Sept. 22-24 among 860 likely voters in Virginia with a sampling error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The Texas poll asked 950 likely voters with a sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
James Morley III ✉
James Morley III is a writer with more than two decades of experience in entertainment, travel, technology, and science and nature.
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