Emerson Polls: Trump Leads in Texas, Harris in Virginia

Despite efforts to flip traditionally red Texas and blue Virginia, neither presidential candidate has been able to move the needle in states they wanted to turn in 2024, according to a new survey released Thursday by Emerson College Polling/The Hill.

Once seen as possibly drifting into purple territory, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% in Texas. The 5 percentage point lead marks a one-point increase since the poll was last taken in early September. The survey also saw current Senator Ted Cruz leading Democrat challenger Colin Allred 49% to 45%.

"Hispanic voters in Texas break for Harris 54% to 41%, and black voters 87% to 8%, while white voters break for Trump, 64% to 33%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Among Hispanic voters, Harris has more support among women, with 62%, than men, 46%. The overall gender divide finds women break for Harris by six while men break for Trump by 19."

Likewise with Virginia, which is currently governed by a Republican, hopes of Trump flipping the commonwealth are fading with the former president trailing Harris 52% to 44%. The big takeaway in Virginia was the breaking of women for Harris. When President Biden was the nominee, Trump enjoyed a 2-percentage point lead at 45% to 43% the last time the poll was taken in July. The latest poll shows a 20-point lead for Harris at 58% to 38% among women in Virginia.

"Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 68% to 30%, while voters who say housing affordability is the top issue facing Virginia break for Harris, 76% to 15%," Kimball added.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll was taken Sept. 22-24 among 860 likely voters in Virginia with a sampling error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The Texas poll asked 950 likely voters with a sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

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