Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in five of the seven battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
According to the survey, among likely voters, Harris leads Trump by 4 points in Georgia, 2 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania, and 2 points in Wisconsin. Harris and Trump are tied among likely voters in Nevada, but Harris leads Trump by 3 points among registered voters.
Among likely voters, Trump leads Harris by 3 points in North Carolina and 3 points in Arizona.
Overall, among registered voters, Harris and Trump are tied at 47% while Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely voters.
Harris' support improved 6 points from where President Joe Biden was in the spring, while Trump's support remains unchanged.
About three-quarters (74%) of battleground-state voters say they will definitely vote for Harris or Trump, an increase from the spring when 58% were committed to Biden or Trump, according to the poll. The percentage who are uncommitted has dropped from 42% to 26% over the past five months, according to the poll.
Trump's current margin among white voters without college degrees in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is about the same as it was in 2020, according to the poll, while in Michigan, he's running better with these voters than he did in 2020.
Harris is running ahead of Biden's 2020 margins among white people with a college degree in Wisconsin but about the same in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to the poll.
This poll was conducted by The Post and George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government Sept. 30 to Oct. 15 among a stratified random sample of 5,016 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The overall margin of sampling error is 1.7 percentage points. State sample sizes ranged from 580 to 965 voters with error margins between 3.9 and 5.0 points.
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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