German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said just last week he was “on the same page” as U.S. President Donald Trump on the goals of the war involving Iran.
Now he sounds far less enthusiastic.
Europe’s most powerful leader initially aligned closely with Washington in the early days of the conflict. That stance set him apart from other European leaders, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and French President Emmanuel Macron, who condemned U.S.-Israeli strikes as illegal.
But Merz now appears to be reversing course as the economic and security consequences of the war for Germany — the European Union’s largest economy — become clearer. He has also publicly raised concerns that Trump lacks an exit strategy to end the fighting in the Persian Gulf.
During a visit to Norway on Friday, Merz delivered his sharpest criticism yet, saying the war raises “major questions” about security.
“It is having a massive impact on our energy costs, and it has the potential to trigger large-scale migration,” he said.
His remarks contrast with his tone during a visit to Washington last week. Meeting Trump in the Oval Office, Merz expressed support for the administration’s objectives and laughed as Trump described the damage from U.S. airstrikes on Iran. Merz said Berlin was aligned with Washington on the need to remove the government in Tehran.
Now, as the war enters its third week, Merz appears increasingly concerned about the conflict’s impact on German and European interests. Political pressure from European allies and from his center-left coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, has also pushed him to adopt a tougher tone.
Merz worries the war could worsen Germany’s economic challenges, particularly as rising energy costs hit the country’s struggling manufacturing sector. He also fears it could complicate efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and trigger a new refugee crisis while Germany faces growing support for the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party.
On Friday, Merz criticized the Trump administration’s decision to ease oil sanctions on Russia in an effort to lower global prices, saying the move could strengthen Moscow’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine.
“We want to ensure that Russia does not exploit the war in Iran to weaken Ukraine,” Merz said.
Mixed signals on Iran
Merz has sent mixed messages since the United States and Israel launched their attacks. The day after the first strikes, he questioned whether the campaign could topple Iran’s government and warned of the risk of a prolonged conflict similar to the Iraq War.
At the same time, he said Germany was in no position to “lecture” its allies and supported their goal of regime change.
The mixed messaging has created confusion in Tehran.
“We don’t know what the real position of Germany is,” Iranian Ambassador to Germany Majid Nili Ahmadabadi told POLITICO. “We are hearing different voices from within the government.”
Merz adopted a more cautious tone again Wednesday during a meeting in Berlin with Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš. He expressed concern that the United States and Israel may lack a plan for ending the conflict.
“We have no interest in an endless war,” Merz said.
The shift reflects growing pressure inside the European Union and within his coalition government. Lawmakers from the Social Democratic Party have increasingly criticized Merz’s Christian Democratic Union for what they view as excessive alignment with Trump and support for the strikes.
“The CDU position is increasingly losing ground,” said René Repasi, a Social Democratic member of the European Parliament.
Repasi said criticism of the strikes by European Council President António Costa highlighted Germany’s isolation within the EU.
“He knows that the majority of member states are behind him,” Repasi said of Costa.
Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, often seen as a Trump ally, joined other EU leaders this week in criticizing the attacks as violations of international law.
Merz has not gone that far and is unlikely to do so. Still, Social Democratic politicians say his more critical tone reflects pressure from within the coalition.
“There were several discussions within the coalition where we strongly insisted that we should clearly reject this war,” said Adis Ahmetovic, the Social Democrats’ lead foreign policy lawmaker.
Economic and migration concerns
Merz’s shift is also driven by fears about the economic fallout of a prolonged conflict. Germany’s energy-intensive manufacturing sector, already struggling before the war, is particularly vulnerable to rising costs.
“Growth prospects are likely to continue to deteriorate,” economist Veronika Grimm wrote in the German newspaper Handelsblatt. “For Germany, this means hopes for a return to growth are once again being dampened.”
Germany could also face significant pressure if the conflict triggers a new wave of refugees from the Middle East.
A study by the Berlin-based Rockwool Foundation found that 28 percent of Iranians would most likely choose Germany as a destination if they fled the war, largely because the country already hosts a large Iranian diaspora.
The risks come as Merz’s conservatives face upcoming state elections, where concerns about the economy and global conflicts are helping fuel support for far-right parties.
Amid those challenges, Merz said Friday he would work with Group of Seven partners and Israel to pursue a plan to end the war through diplomacy.
“Germany is not a party to this war, and we do not want to become one,” Merz said. “All our efforts are focused on ending the war.”
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