CBS Poll: GOP Turns Tide on Dems' Momentum in Midterms

Republicans have staved off a Democrat run through the summer months, having seen the GOP House projection lead shrink for three months before the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll show gains Sunday.

Republicans are now projected to hold 224 House seats to the Democrats' 211, according to CBS News.

The GOP also has a 2-point lead on Democrats in the poll's generic ballot, with 47% choosing Republicans over Democrats (45%).

The top issues are also in Republicans' favor, as the economy (80%), inflation (76%), and crime (68%) led among likely voters viewing them as "very important" voting issues in these midterms. A near majority of likely voters (48%) said Democrats' economic policies have been "harmful" the past two years. Just 28% said Democrats' policies have been helpful.

Abortion remains an important issue for Democrat voters, but the poll showed a 5-point decline in those who say abortion is a "very important" voting issue.

Among other topline findings:

68% said the Biden administration should do more to curb inflation.
65% say the economy is getting worse.
45% of voters say Biden's policies bear "a great deal" of responsibility for the economy, but another quarter say "some."
Just 8% say Biden bears no responsibility for the struggling economy.
A plurality of voters say Republican policies would help the economy (42%), compared to just 33% who believe they would harm the economy.
A majority of both Republicans (55%) and Democrats (54%) consider the opposition party "extreme."

Also, CBS News' analysis reports younger voters — long a Democrat voting bloc — are less enthusiastic about voting in these midtems.

"Among the many patterns we've observed, one is that younger people don't seem quite as likely to turn out as they did in 2018," according to the analysis." Voters under 45 make up just a quarter of likely voters in our baseline estimates above, because they are simply less likely to say they'll turn out this year..

"That said, this group did turn out in big numbers just four years ago, helping along a blue wave. And voting once makes you likelier to do it again.

"So, suppose they do show up. Replicating 2018 turnout patterns would mean under-45 voters grow to about a third of the 2022 electorate. Combine that with voters' current preferences and you get an estimate that puts Democrats ahead in about 219 seats. That would basically make House control a toss-up and mean Democrats have a chance to narrowly save their majority. (Republicans would still net a few seats in this scenario.)"

But Republicans still have momentum on their side, the poll finds.

"On the flipside, are there indications in our data that Republicans could expand their lead from here? Yes," the analysis concluded. "Our statistical simulations account for several knife-edge House races within a point of 50% for each side — they may very well break heavily toward one party, which is typically what happens in a wave election. This year it wouldn't take much change for that to happen.

"One way it could occur is that Republicans' current advantage on turnout grows a bit larger. What if more Democratic voters — disappointed with the Biden administration and the state of the country — decide to sit these elections out? Specifically, suppose their turnout ends up six points lower than Republican turnout — a plausible scenario, given that Republican voters are six points more likely than Democratic voters to report they're definitely voting this year.

"Assuming current vote preferences hold, this differential turnout would flip several more seats across the country. It would put the GOP ahead in approximately 233 seats — a near complete reversal of the majority Democrats won four years ago. And that 20-seat gain would be very much in line with how the party out of power performs in a typical midterm."

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker polled 2,068 registered voters Oct. 12-14 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.