Pollster Nate Silver said he's finding the close numbers in this year's presidential race "unsatisfying," but his "gut" prediction is that former President Donald Trump will take the 2024 win over Vice President Kamala Harris.
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"My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats," Silver, creator of the FiveThirtyEight polling engine, wrote in an opinion piece for The New York Times on Wednesday.
However, Silver warned that voters shouldn't "put any value whatsoever on anyone's gut — including mine," but should resign themselves that the "50-50 forecast" for Harris and Trump "really does mean 50-50."
He went on to write that Harris or Trump can still defeat their polling numbers to bring home a win.
With Trump, Silver said that those who think he'll beat the polls use the notion of "shy Trump voters," with the premise that many people are being polled who support Trump, but fear admitting that they do out of the potential of facing social stigma.
"There's not much evidence for the shy-voter theory — nor has there been any persistent tendency in elections worldwide for right-wing parties to outperform their polls," Silver said.
He added that there is a "certain snobbery" in the theory, as most Trump supporters are proud to say they back him, and there is less stigma now about voting for him.
It's more likely that Trump has the problem of "nonresponsive bias," in which pollsters are not reaching enough of his supporters.
However, Democrats no longer have the edge in party identification, and Harris may also need to be concerned about a "Hillary effect," because when Hillary Clinton ran for office, undecided voters tilted against her rather than admit they would vote for a woman.
But Harris could also be underestimated in the polls, said Silver.
"On average, polls miss by three or four points," he said, noting that if the numbers swing her way, Harris will win by the popular vote and the Electoral College with the largest margin since President Barack Obama's win in 2008.
But still, pollsters who are too afraid of "missing low" on Trump again, like in the 2020 election, could either consciously or unconsciously make assumptions favoring him, said Silver.
Either way, Silver said that while the numbers are close now, "Don't be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people's guts might tell them."
That's because even a small polling error like the ones in 2016 or 2020 could result in a "comfortable" Electoral College win for either candidate.
"According to my model, there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states," Silver wrote.
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Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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