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Tags: nate silver | president | election | donald trump | kamala harris | toss-up | polls

Pollster Nate Silver: Presidential Race 'Literally 50/50'

By    |   Wednesday, 16 October 2024 10:37 AM EDT

The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains a toss-up, according to Democrat election forecaster Nate Silver.

The latest Silver Bulletin numbers show Vice President Harris with 49.3% national support compared to former President Trump's 46.5%.

"After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it's now literally 50/50. We're just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate," Silver posted Tuesday afternoon on his website.

"It hasn't been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference."

Silver's forecast model shows Trump ahead in the battleground states of Arizona (plus 1.6 percentage points), Georgia (plus-0.9), North Carolina (plus-0.8), and Harris leading in Michigan (plus-1.0), Nevada (plus-0.8), Pennsylvania (plus-0.6), and Wisconsin (plus-0.8).

Although his latest forecasts showed Harris narrowly on track to capture enough Electoral College votes to win the election, Silver in late September said he believed the vice president's campaign should be nervous about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Newsweek reported.

Last week, Silver said the presidential race likely would continue to be a toss-up until voters go to the polls on Nov. 5.

"I've never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will," Silver wrote, adding that there were a few instances in the past few months where it appeared that the election was swinging in one direction, "but they proved to be false starts."

Last week, Silver questioned Harris' choice of Minnesota Democrat Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate in this year's election.

Silver, who previously said he intends to vote for Harris in November, admitted, "I'm not into Tim Walz" during the Oct. 9 episode of Risky Business, the podcast he hosts with Maria Konnikova.

The pollster said he would have preferred Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro with Harris on the Democrat national ticket.

Charlie McCarthy

Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


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The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains a toss-up, according to Democrat election forecaster Nate Silver.
nate silver, president, election, donald trump, kamala harris, toss-up, polls, battleground
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2024-37-16
Wednesday, 16 October 2024 10:37 AM
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