Former President Donald Trump appears poised to win North Carolina based on early voting figures, according to election expert Michael McDonald.

North Carolina had already surpassed its early-voting record set in 2020, but the State Board of Elections announced Sunday that more than 4.2 million voters cast ballots at early in-person voting sites, with turnout in western counties hit by Hurricane Helene outpacing the rest of the state.

Including absentee voting, 4,465,548 voters — or 57% of the state’s 7.8 million registered voters — cast ballots in the general election as of Sunday morning, officials said, noting that turnout may be slightly higher because of a lag between when ballots are cast and when data is uploaded.

“In 2020, NC registered Democrats had a 5.6 advantage in early voting (both mail and in-person early) at this time,” McDonald wrote. “In 2016, registered Democrats had a 9.8-point lead. Now, in 2024, it is registered Republicans who have a 0.9-point lead. If early voting is a measure of relative enthusiasm of the parties, Trump appears to have wind in his sails.”

There are other things to consider, like the unaffiliated and minor party early voters, said McDonald.

“There are more of these voters than either registered Democrats or Republicans,” he wrote. “This is unusual in that in 2020 and 2016 registered Democrats or registered Republicans exceeded the no-party affiliates/minor party registrants.”

Still, McDonald said Trump has North Carolina.

“There is no error bar I can assign to my prediction, but there are plausible scenarios in the early voting signals that the polling could be correct that North Carolina is closer than the early vote forecast alone indicates,” he wrote.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this repor

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