Reports of the pending President Donald Trump-led economic demise have apparently been greatly exaggerated.
Economists are now forecasting a lower recession risk, cooler inflationary pressure, and stronger job growth and creation, according to The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly poll of experts.
"Despite numerous headwinds, the U.S. economy is proving stubbornly resilient," National Restaurant Association chief economist Chad Moutray told the Journal. "Consumers are continuing to spend, but the mood has clearly shifted from bold to careful."
April fears of trade war and tariff risks are yet another example of proving President Donald Trump right on his bold predicts on the economy.
The Journal's July 3-8 survey of 69 economic forecasters – from Wall Street banks to universities to smaller consultants – have tempered their economic hesitations on growth, recession, and inflation, despite the fact Trump remains steadfast in his calls for stiff tariffs to kick in starting Aug. 1.
Among the details from the Journal survey:
- Gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1% year over year in the fourth quarter, increasing from the April forecast of just 0.8%.
- GDP in 2026 to be 1.9%.
- Recession probability down from 45% in April to 33% now.
The projections have trended up following three months of promising economic data, including job growth averaging 150,000 in the past three months; and a slightly dropping unemployment rate from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June.
Consumer confidence is no longer sagging as it was earlier in the year and the S&P 500 continues to press record highs this month.
"As good as our stats are, they just weren't made for these kinds of very large moves in policy that cause a knee-jerk reaction," KPMG U.S. chief economist Diane Swonk said, issuing some pessimism to the Journal. "It makes it even harder to read the tea leaves."
Notably, the projected inflation spike thought to be coming from tariffs has yet to be seen as the U.S. currently has the lowest inflation in four years, according to the Journal.
"While tariff hikes still seem likely to raise inflation in the second half of the year, their impact will be partially offset by less energy and shelter-cost inflation," Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams told the Journal.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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