Harvard Poll: First Plus Economic Rating Since July '21

The latest Harvard-Harris poll is showing Americans are growing more confident in the economy.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released Monday revealed the first net-positive rating on the strength of the U.S. economy since July 2021, the first few months of former President Joe Biden's administration.

When asked "how strong do you think the U.S. economy is today?" a majority of registered voters polled saw it as "strong" under Trump compared to "weak" for almost the entirety of the Biden administration.

• Strong: 51% (plus-5 points from April)
• Weak: 49% (minus-6 points from April)

"For the first time since July 2021, just over half of voters say the U.S. economy is strong today," the report said.

Despite the positive sentiment from registered voters apparent now, there has been considerable criticism heaped on Trump's tariffs and financial market fluctuations for weeks for having let down his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) voter base on the economy.

But Trump, his Cabinet, staffers, and political and economic backers note the S&P 500 has regained all of the April 2 "Liberation Day" losses. That was the date of market dips due to Trump's massive tariffs agenda designed to rebalance the global trade order.

Notably, the month-to-month chart defies some COVID-19 pandemic-era economic regression, as the widest net-negative on the chart is June 2022, the height of the 2022 midterms and the full-go of the Biden "build back better" economic agenda.

That June 2022 net-negative even trumped the net-negative sentiment of the height of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in May 2020, where large portions of the economy were shut down for weeks and months on end to "stop the spread" of the deadly COVID-19 virus.

Also, the chart first went negative at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and from May 2020 through the end of the first Trump administration, sentiment was bridging closer to net positive.

But the Biden administration's four years fell into negative territory for months, cratering in June 2022 and leveling mostly steady in the solidly net-negative range before trending closer to net-positive again in July 2024. That was the month that followed Biden's poor late-June debate performance against Trump, leading into the July 13 Trump assassination attempt, Biden exiting the race a week later, and Vice President Kamala Harris being picked to take over his campaign.

Other headlines on the poll's release under "Approval and Mood of the Country" included:

• "Up slightly from April, 42% of voters now say the country is on the right track."
• "Similarly, 39% of voters now say the economy is on the right track."
• "Pessimism in voters' personal financial situation dropped 6pts this month to 39%, while more say their finances are holding steady (27%, +4pts) or improving (34%, +2pts)."
• "Trump's approval remains largely steady at 47%."
• "Trump's handling of immigration and returning the U.S. to its values gets highest approval, while the tariff and inflation policies are weakest."
• "GOP approval stands at 52%."
• "Congressional approval up slightly at 38%."
• "Trump, RFK Jr., and Vance have the highest favorability; RFK Jr., Rubio, and Gabbard have net positive perceptions among voters."
• "Democratic Party approval has recovered somewhat but still underwater at 42%."
• "U.S. military and the police are the top groups tested, while Hamas, Russia, and China the least popular."
• "Economic issues and immigration remain the top issues for voters, though inflation dropped 4pts from April."
• "Inflation continues to be the top issue for voters across party lines."

The Harvard Center for American Political Studies (CAPS), in conjunction with The Harris Poll and HarrisX pollsters, surveyed 1,903 registered voters May 14-15. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

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