Vice President Kamala Harris has resurged to a national lead outside the margin of error among likely voters (51%-47%) in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, but the race remains a statistical tie among registered voters.
Notably, the national popular vote of a democracy does not decide the election in America's constitutional republic, putting the race on the individual states.
With registered voters remaining with a statistical tie at 2 points (49%-47%), the get-out-the-vote campaigns in key battleground states in the Electoral College will decide the race in the final two weeks before Nov. 5 Election Day.
"In one potential indicator of turnout, the candidates are close in voter enthusiasm — 88% of Harris supporters are enthusiastic about her, as are 85% of Trump's about him," according to ABC News' analysis. "In another, Harris maintains a slight edge in voter contact, with Americans overall 5 points more apt to have been contacted by her campaign than by Trump's.
"In the seven battleground states, though, it's a nonsignificant 4 points — and the 50-47% race there remains the equivalent of a dead heat."
ABC News' analysis admitted "some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote" expands her statistical tie among registered voters to a lead outside the margin of error among likely voters. Also, the margins of the polls move on independent voters, which are statistically tied among registered voters but surge to Harris by 4 points among likely voters.
The ABC News poll two weeks ago has shown Trump surging ahead, but Sunday's edition showed a wobble back to Harris.
Trump leads on these issues (among registered voters):
- Trump up 12 points on immigration.
- Trump up 8 points on the economy overall.
- Trump up 7 points on inflation.
- Trump up 7 points on war in the Middle East.
Harris leads on these issues (among registered voters):
- Harris up 15 points on abortion.
- Harris up 11 points on mental sharpness needed to serve as president.
- Harris up 10 points on healthcare.
- Harris up 8 points on "protecting American democracy."
- Harris up 6 points on helping the middle class.
The importance on economy or inflation have waned 7 points since September, according to ABC News, but those remain the top concerns in this election for 90% and 85% of registered voters respectively.
Early voting has been heavily siding with Democrats, as the 8% of adults and 10% of registered voters who have said they have already voted have gone with Harris 62% over Trump 33%.
The largest margins for Harris come among Black voters, as she leads by 70 points among all Black adults and 83 points among Black likely voters (90%-7%).
Langer Research Associates and Ipsos conducted the poll for ABC News among 2,808 adults, 2,392 registered voters, and 1,913 likely voters. The results have margins of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for adults and registered voters and 2.5 points for likely voters.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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