TIPP Poll: Trump Takes 1-Point Lead

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is carrying momentum into the final hours before Tuesday's election day, backed by closing the gender gap amid a difficult week for Democrats, Sunday's latest iteration of the TIPP National Presidential Tracking Poll showed.

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Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point 49%-48% with under 48 hours to go before Election Day, pulling ahead after trailing in late October in the daily tracker.

"This late surge highlights stark divides across demographics like age, education,
race, and region, pinpointing where both campaigns are doubling down in these final hours," according to the pollster. "Significantly, 6% of voters report they could still change their minds, underscoring how every moment could prove decisive as the race barrels toward Election Day."

Notably, the movement is all in Trump's favor as Harris has remained stuck at 48% for the ninth consecutive day.

Days after Harris surrogate Mark Cuban said Trump does not have smart, strong women, the gender gap has closed in the poll.

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"The gender gap is tightening in the last days before the election," according to the pollster. "A 5-point gender gap shows men favoring Trump (50% to 46%) and women leaning toward Harris (49% to 48%).

"For comparison, in the 2020 CNN exit poll, it was 23 points: men favoring Trump (53% to 45%) and women favoring Biden (57% to 42%); in the TIPP final tracking poll, it was 31 points: men favoring Trump (54% to 42%) and women favoring Biden (58% to 39%)."

"The tightening could be a sample fluctuation. However, if it persists, it signals that more women opt for Trump in the final days. Still, narrowing to the vicinity of low double digits is a big deal, considering that in 2020, it was 23 points and 31 points, according to the CNN exit poll and TIPP tracking, respectively. We caution against making conclusive judgments here."

Also, after the garbage-gate between Puerto Ricans and Trump supporters, Trump is making "stunning" inroads with minorities, "especially Hispanic" voters.

"Trump's growing support among minority voters this cycle, especially Hispanics, shows a critical shift that could impact his final numbers," according to the pollster.

"Hispanic samples are small and have high margins of error. Despite that, a 33-point lead in 2020, shrinking to about fifteen points in 2024, is stunning."

Full results with third-party candidates:

Trump 48.6%
Harris 47.6%
Not sure 0.9%
Independent Cornel West 0.8%
Green Party candidate Jill Stein 0.8%.
Other 0.7%
Prefer not to answer 0.7%

Regional breakdowns:

Northeast: Harris leads 52%-43%
South: Trump leads at 53%
Midwest: Trump leads at 51%-46%
West: Harris leads at 52%

The pollster noted a number of key battlegrounds lie in the Midwest, making a lead there for Trump a potential bellwether.

Also, with early voting ending, Election Day turnout can swing the race in Trump's favor, according to the pollster's analysis: "43% have already voted or dropped off ballots or mailed them in, and 57% plan to vote on Election Day. Early voters prefer Harris, while Trump leads among those planning to vote on Election Day. Each voting group's turnout will be crucial, as the race is close overall."

The TIPP National Presidential Tracking Poll was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 among 1,305 likely voters, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

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