Early polling in several marquee 2026 Senate and gubernatorial contests showed a mix of close matchups and multi-candidate fields, with some of the toughest tests emerging in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, and Arizona, according to surveys compiled by 270toWin.
On the Senate map, Texas polling released this month showed a dead heat in a potential general election matchup between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. An Emerson College poll of 1,165 likely voters conducted Jan. 15 had the race at 46%-46%, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The same Emerson survey tested Talarico against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and found Cornyn ahead 47%-44%. Another Texas poll from the University of Houston-Texas Southern University on Oct. 9 put Cornyn ahead of Talarico 48%-45% among likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9.
In Ohio's special Senate election, Bowling Green State University polling earlier in the cycle showed Republican Sen. Jon Husted leading Democrat Tim Ryan 50%-44% (margin of error +/- 4.1). A prior BGSU poll from March 4 had Husted ahead 45%-38% (margin of error +/- 4.0).
In North Carolina, Harper Polling surveys showed Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper ahead in a potential general election matchup with Republican Michael Whatley 47%-39%, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0. A Sept. 18 Harper poll had Cooper ahead 46%-42% (margin of error +/- 4.0).
Georgia polling tested Democrat incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff against several Republican possibilities. A Cygnal poll of 800 likely voters conducted May 22 showed Ossoff leading Rep. Buddy Carter 46%-42% (margin of error +/- 3.4), and leading Mike Collins 46%-43% (margin of error +/- 3.4). A Quantus Insights poll of 624 likely voters conducted Sept. 15 had Ossoff leading Carter 40%-37%, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3, and showed Ossoff and Collins tied at 38%-38%.
In Florida's special Senate race, a University of North Florida poll of 728 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 showed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat David Jenkins 49%-38%, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3.
On the governor side, Nevada polling showed a tie in a potential general election contest between Democrat Aaron Ford and Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. An Emerson College poll of 800 registered voters conducted Nov. 21 reported the race at 41%-41% with a margin of error of +/- 3.4.
Arizona polling showed narrow margins in tests involving Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. An Emerson College poll of 850 registered voters conducted Nov. 14 had Hobbs leading Karrin Taylor Robson 43%-42% (margin of error +/- 3.3). In separate tests, the same Emerson poll had Hobbs ahead of Rep. Andy Biggs 44%-43%.
In Michigan, where some polling has modeled a three-way general election, the Glengariff Group's Jan. 13 survey of 600 likely voters showed Republican John James at 34%, Democrat Jocelyn Benson at 32%, and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan at 26%, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0.
And in Ohio's governor race, an Emerson College poll of 850 registered voters conducted Dec. 11 showed Democrat Amy Acton edging Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 46%-45%, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3.
The overall polling landscape in governor and Senate races suggests that many contests are far from settled, with several key states showing tight competition ahead of primaries and the general election. Close polling margins — particularly in Ohio, Nevada, Michigan and other battlegrounds — indicate both parties are likely to pour resources into these states as Election Day approaches.
As campaigns continue and new polls are released, these numbers might shift further, but the current data points to a highly contested midterm cycle with control of state governorships and the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance.
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