Catholic cardinals are preparing for their conclave to begin on May 7 to select a new Pope after the death of Pope Francis. Rumors are swirling worldwide over who will win the two-thirds majority support from the cardinals to become the new Pope.
An unlikely source of predictions surrounding the weighty decision is coming from a "prediction market," otherwise called an online betting platform.
The website PolyMarket is offering "shares" where people interested in putting some money on the naming of the eventual Pope can take their chances, while also offering some insight into global thoughts on who may win.
At midafternoon on Tuesday, the top contender, according to the participants' shares, was Cardinal Pietro Parolin. Close behind was Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
A few points behind was Cardinal Peter Turkson. Rounding out the top four according to "action" on the Polymarket site was Cardinal Matteo Zuppi.
There's a slight element of internal Vatican intrigue surrounding the conclave. The Vatican announced on Tuesday that Cardinal Giovanni Becciu would not vote. He was convicted by a church court of embezzlement in 2023 and lives in an apartment at the Vatican.
The cardinals could take a long time, potentially longer than a week, to make their selection. But the last two conclaves reached decisions in two days.
Jim Mishler ✉
Jim Mishler, a seasoned reporter, anchor and news director, has decades of experience covering crime, politics and environmental issues.
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