Republicans have opened a narrow early lead in Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, Newsweek reported, as Democrats look to revive their fortunes in a state that has trended increasingly conservative under Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Republicans are leading in early polling for Florida's 2026 governor's race, but the margin remains tight, suggesting a potential opening for Democrats aiming to reverse a string of statewide defeats.
A new poll conducted by the James Madison Institute between May 5-7 surveyed 1,200 registered voters and found that in hypothetical matchups, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, a Democrat who has not formally declared her candidacy, trails Republican contenders by a few percentage points.
In a potential head-to-head race, Rep. Byron Donalds — who declared his candidacy and is endorsed by President Donald Trump — leads Levine Cava 38% to 34%. State Sen. Jason Pizzo, who recently left the Democratic Party, garnered 5%, while 23% of voters remain undecided.
Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, who has not confirmed any plans to run, also leads Levine Cava by four points in another scenario, 39%-35%. Pizzo pulls 8% in that matchup, with 18% undecided.
Although Florida has shifted firmly to the right in recent years — Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election — Democrats see signs of competitiveness if Republican support softens.
On the Republican primary side, 29% of voters said they would back Casey DeSantis, compared to 28% for Donalds. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz received 10%, former Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez got 7%, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez polled at 5%.
None, aside from Donalds, have confirmed they are running.
After being told of Trump's endorsement, support for Donalds surged, with 44% backing him compared to 25% for DeSantis.
Levine Cava currently leads the Democratic primary field with 32%. Former Rep. Gwen Graham is in second place with 13%, followed by former Rep. David Jolly with 10% and former state Sen. Lauren Book with 7%.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
Despite their early deficit, Democrats see an opportunity in Republican divisions and Trump's declining popularity. A recent Civiqs survey found the president's net approval rating in Florida stood at -1 point on May 7, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving of his performance.
"The Democratic Party could make it interesting if, and that's a very big if, it can get its act together, which they haven't been able to do for the last four, five, six years," said J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida. "But the opportunity is there if nothing more than the pushback against DeSantis and Trump."
Levine Cava could be a strong candidate due to her recognition in Miami and appeal among Cuban-American voters — a group that leans Republican but has shown past openness to Democrat candidates.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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