Republicans are predicting they'll retake control of the Senate with at least 52 seats as races against Democrat incumbents have narrowed in several key states.
"At this point, we have to have 52," a GOP operative told The Hill, pointing out that in Ohio alone, Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $20 million in the campaign pitting Republican Bernie Moreno against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown.
"If we can't win a race with that level of outspending in a state [former President Donald] Trump's going to win [by] between 8 to 10 points, that's a failure," the operative added.
Ohio is widely considered the party's best chance to pick up a seat, after West Virginia and Montana.
In West Virginia, longtime Sen. Joe Manchin, who switched parties in recent years from Democrat to independent is retiring. Republican Gov. Jim Justice, a popular figure in the red state, is expected to defeat Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott. Both men are seeking their first term in federal office.
In Montana, another key red state, Republican Tim Sheehy has continued to hold a lead over Democrat Sen. Jon Tester. A recent poll by The Hill/Emerson College puts Sheehy with a 4-point advantage over Tester, and other polls are showing his lead is almost double that.
The Ohio race shows Brown and Moreno locked in a close race, with Brown's lead down to one point.
"We see the exact same polling pattern for Bernie Moreno as we did for J.D. Vance," Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told a Ripon Society luncheon, referring to the Republican Ohio senator who is Trump's running mate.
He added that according to internal polls, Moreno is holding a lead of two to three points.
In 2022, Vance defeated then-Rep. Tim Ryan by 6 percentage points to take the Ohio race.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has placed both races in its "toss-up" column, as well as Michigan.
But operatives in Wisconsin said that GOP-leaning men have brought the race between Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde to nearly even.
Baldwin has also been targeted by Republican messaging about refusing to disclose the assets, investments, and dealings of her partner, Maria Brisbane, a top Wall Street wealth adviser. While lawmakers' spouses are required to release that information, Baldwin and Brisbane are not married.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is facing a reelection challenge from Republican David McCormick.
A GOP operative involved in Senate races said the Pennsylvania race is tied to the race at the top of the ticket, with the state widely considered the key battleground state in the presidential election.
Other sources said there will be concern if the party doesn't win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially if Trump defeats Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in those states.
Republicans are saying they are confident in Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. She is leading independent Dan Osborn, but the gap is narrow, with some Republicans angry that her lead isn't higher, considering the Senate Leadership Fund spent $3 million on her campaign rather than use that money in the battleground states.
"The entire situation is embarrassing," a GOP Senate aide said. "I don't think she's going to win by a lot. It's a real mess."
The size of a majority is also vital while looking ahead to the 2026 races, which will feature tough reelection battles for Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Thom Tillis, R-N.C.
"It'll be a major problem for the next cycle," a third operative said about what could happen if a 52-seat majority isn't won this year. "The Ohio Senate race is the most important race of the 2026 cycle."
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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