Sabato's Crystal Ball has shifted 11 California congressional races for 2026 toward the Democratic Party, marking a major rebalancing of the political map after voters Tuesday passed Proposition 50, allowing lawmakers to redraw district lines ahead of next year's midterm elections.
The new measure, approved by voters in the Golden State, temporarily suspends California's independent redistricting commission and hands lawmakers control of the process — a decision expected to strengthen Democrats' position in several key districts, according to a report from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics on Wednesday.
The redistricting shifts put California Democratic incumbents Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Dave Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitesides in a stronger position for reelection, the forecast states.
Meanwhile, California Republicans Darrell Issa and David Valadao saw their races downgraded to toss-ups, erasing previous GOP advantages, while Doug LaMalfa went from "safe Republican" to "likely Democratic."
Rep. Young Kim remains the only California Republican still rated as "safe."
The shifts mark one of the largest single-state adjustments this election cycle and reflect a broader Democratic effort to reclaim control of the narrowly divided House.
California's move is also part of a larger national redistricting reshuffle, as mapmaking battles continue across the country — many of them still unresolved.
Following Ohio's remap late last week and the approval of California's Proposition 50, there are now five states with new House maps so far this cycle: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
For now, analysts assume all of these maps are set for 2026, although there may be changes ahead.
Missouri could see its map placed on the statewide ballot in 2026, which would prevent it from being used next year.
Indiana is under White House pressure to redraw its congressional map, though Republicans currently lack the votes in the state Senate to move forward.
Kansas recently abandoned its own redistricting effort, reportedly wary of targeting Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan., a strong incumbent considered difficult to unseat.
Florida Republicans could launch a new redistricting push that might give the GOP multiple new seats or fresh offensive targets.
In Utah, court orders appear likely to result in a new map that could open one or two competitive districts for Democrats.
Virginia Democrats, buoyed by their 2025 statewide sweep and California's outcome, are preparing to ask voters for authority to redraw their own state map next year, which could yield several new Democratic seats.
Meanwhile, Illinois and Maryland are facing pressure from national Democrats to revisit their maps to offset expected Republican gains elsewhere.
Looming over all these state-level efforts is the U.S. Supreme Court's pending decision on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Depending on its scope, a sweeping ruling could allow Republican-led states to eliminate Democratic-leaning districts with large Black populations.
If issued early enough in 2025, such a decision could dramatically reshape the House battlefield before the midterms.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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